XLM Rises 0.13% on 2025-11-02 Amid Mixed 7-Day and 1-Year Downtrend

XLM, the digital asset issued by Stellar, recorded a 0.13% increase in the past 24 hours, reaching a price of $0.3047 as of 2025-11-02. However, over the past week, it fell by 4.05%, marking a continuation of its short-term bearish trend. The asset has seen a marginal 0.16% rise over the past month, but over the past year, the decline has been significant at 8.18%. This mixed performance highlights a market that remains under pressure from broader macroeconomic and sector-specific headwinds, despite minor short-term stabilizing efforts.

The near-term decline aligns with broader market volatility, particularly in the wake of macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. economic calendar for the coming week is heavy, with key indicators such as the S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMIs set to release. These reports are expected to offer insights into manufacturing activity and pricing trends, which could influence risk sentiment and investor positioning across crypto and traditional markets. Additionally, the RBA interest rate decision on 2025-11-03 could add to the volatility. Given XLM’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts and liquidity dynamics, these releases may play a pivotal role in near-term price action.

From a technical perspective, XLM’s performance remains constrained by its recent 7-day and 1-year downward moves, despite a modest 24-hour recovery. Traders are likely monitoring key support and resistance levels, as well as broader market sentiment, to gauge potential for a reversal or continuation of the downward trend. A key technical focus is whether the asset can hold above the $0.3047 level or face renewed downward pressure from bearish catalysts.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest conducted on the event pattern “XLM falls ≥4.05% in 7 days AND ≥8.18% in 1 year” from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02 identified 172 qualifying instances. The analysis found that the average cumulative excess return against the benchmark was modestly positive—+1.7% at 10 days and +0.7% at 30 days—though these results lacked statistical significance at the 95% confidence level. The win rate hovered between 50–55% in the first two weeks following the event and drifted lower thereafter, indicating a weak mean-reversion tendency that diminishes over time.

Given the limited edge and insignificant t-statistics, the signal is unlikely to outperform after accounting for transaction and slippage costs. To improve the strategy’s viability, it is advisable to combine this signal with additional filters such as on-chain activity, volume spikes, or macroeconomic risk-on/off regimes. These enhancements could help isolate higher-probability setups and improve risk-adjusted returns. The backtest underscores the importance of context and confirmation in trading decisions, especially in volatile crypto environments.