Crudo WTI: Una configuración técnica para la venta al descubierto en medio de un exceso de oferta y tendencias divergentes de productos básicos

The global energy market is at a critical juncture as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil faces a bearish technical setup, compounded by structural oversupply and diverging trends across commodity sectors. For short-term traders and cautious long-term investors, the confluence of these factors demands a rigorous reassessment of risk exposure.

Technical Indicators Signal Deteriorating Momentum

WTI's price action as of November 2025 paints a clear picture of weakening momentum. The benchmark crude is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a bearish signal for short-term trend followers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a sideways consolidation phase, failing to generate meaningful bullish momentum above the 50 threshold. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation in the downward trajectory.

A critical breakdown has occurred at key support levels. WTI has fallen below the $58.00–$61.8% Fibonacci correction zone, a level that previously acted as a psychological floor for buyers. Analysts now anticipate a test of the next support at $56.00, a historically significant reversal point. The price action within a descending channel pattern further validates the bearish bias, with the bull flag formation remaining unconfirmed due to the inability to break above $60–$62 resistance.

Oversupply Pressures Intensify

Fundamental factors align with the technical bear case. Crude oil inventories have surged by 2.7 million barrels in the past week alone, reflecting a persistent supply-demand imbalance. This oversupply is exacerbated by U.S. production hitting record highs in Q2 2025 and potential increases in Russian exports following the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts. The critical $59.7 level now serves as a pivotal near-term threshold; a failure to hold above this could trigger a deeper correction toward $58.00 or even $56.00.

Diverging Commodity Trends Amplify Strategic Risks

The bearish narrative for WTI is further complicated by divergent trends in other commodity sectors. While energy markets grapple with oversupply, gold has surged to a record $4,381.58 per ounce, driven by central bank demand and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical tensions. Industrial metals like copper have also defied the energy slump, hitting fresh highs despite weak Chinese economic data, fueled by demand from green energy and AI infrastructure. In contrast, agricultural commodities face downward pressure, with the World Bank forecasting a 7% decline in average prices for 2025.

This divergence creates a challenging environment for investors. Energy-linked portfolios are increasingly out of sync with broader commodity markets, where metals and precious metals are gaining structural support. For short-term traders, the risk of sector rotation-shifting capital from energy to metals or gold-could accelerate WTI's decline. Long-term investors, meanwhile, must weigh the cyclical nature of the current oversupply against the potential for OPEC+ policy adjustments or geopolitical shocks that could rebalance the market.

Strategic Implications for Traders and Investors

For short-term traders, the bearish technical setup and oversupply dynamics justify a cautious approach. Key strategies include shorting WTI against the $56.00 support level or hedging long positions with put options as the $59.7 threshold looms. However, volatility remains a concern, as fragmented oil markets and geopolitical tensions could temporarily stabilize prices around $63 by year-end.

Cautious long-term investors should prioritize diversification. While energy demand fundamentals remain intact over the multi-year horizon, the current divergence highlights the importance of balancing exposure to energy with resilient sectors like industrial metals and gold. Additionally, monitoring OPEC+ policy shifts and U.S. production trends will be critical for identifying potential inflection points.

Conclusion

WTI crude oil's bearish technical setup, supported by oversupply and diverging commodity trends, presents significant strategic risks. Short-term traders must navigate fragile support levels and inventory pressures, while long-term investors should hedge against sector-specific volatility. As the market awaits catalysts for rebalancing, disciplined risk management will be paramount in navigating this complex environment.