Wormhole/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price drifted lower in a range-bound pattern, with a final 24-hour close near support.
• Volume remained suppressed most of the session, but spiked midday.
• A bearish momentum build-up suggests potential for further downside.
• RSI and MACD confirm overbought to oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands contracted late morning, followed by a weak breakout attempt.

Wormhole/Bitcoin (WBTC) opened at $0.00000094 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $0.00000098 before declining to a low of $0.00000090. It closed at $0.00000091 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume for the period was 1,382,624.9 units, with a notional turnover of $1.26 million. The asset remained in a tight consolidation pattern with bearish sentiment gaining traction late in the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a choppy range-bound formation with a final close near the lower end of the channel, suggesting support at $0.00000091. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 02:15–02:30 ET window as price dropped from $0.00000095 to $0.00000094. Another small bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 02:45–03:00 ET, confirming downward bias. A doji formed at 03:45–04:00 ET near $0.00000093, suggesting indecision. The price failed to break above the $0.00000098 resistance level and has not touched it again.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained flat between $0.00000094 and $0.00000095, indicating a lack of directional momentum. The price has spent the majority of the session below both lines, suggesting bearish bias. For daily charts, the 50- and 200-period lines align near $0.00000095, reinforcing the idea that this level acts as a key psychological and technical resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines show a bearish crossover with the signal line in the afternoon of 2025-10-08, followed by a gradual divergence. RSI dipped below 30 during the early morning of 2025-10-09, indicating oversold conditions. However, the RSI has not responded with a strong bounce, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The RSI's inability to rise above 40 despite low levels signals weak buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were relatively tight for most of the session, with the price staying near the lower band in the final hours. A brief expansion occurred in the early afternoon of 2025-10-08, followed by a failed breakout attempt. The price has since returned to a narrow range, indicating low volatility and limited trading activity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally subdued with the exception of a spike during the 17:30–17:45 ET window, where over 598,015.6 units changed hands. This coincided with a key high at $0.00000097. The overall turnover remained stable, with the highest notional value seen around the same hour. However, price failed to hold above that level, indicating weak confirmation. Later in the session, volume dropped significantly again, highlighting a lack of conviction in price movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.00000090 to $0.00000098, price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.00000095. For daily charts, retracements from the most recent high to low show the current level near the 38.2% level at $0.00000093, indicating a potential support area to watch in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question seeks to exploit range-bound markets like WBTC using a mean-reversion approach. It triggers long entries when the RSI dips below 30 and the price is near the lower Bollinger Band, and short entries when RSI crosses above 70 and the price is near the upper band. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set based on the 20-period ATR. Given WBTC’s recent consolidation and RSI behavior, this strategy could have triggered a short signal during the 04:15–04:30 ET window when RSI briefly crossed above 70. However, the bearish bias and volume divergence may have offered better performance with short-side entries over longs. This highlights the potential of using the RSI and Bollinger Bands in a structured backtesting framework for WBTC.