Dinámicas de liquidez y apetito institucional por Worldcoin (WLD): implicaciones de la comercialización estratégica extrabursátil y la distribución de tokens para los fundamentos del mercado

Worldcoin (WLD) has emerged as a polarizing yet strategically significant player in the crypto ecosystem, driven by its ambitious vision for global digital identity and its unique tokenomics. As 2025 unfolds, the project faces a critical juncture shaped by institutional OTC trading activity, token distribution mechanics, and regulatory headwinds. This analysis unpacks how these factors interplay to define WLD's liquidity dynamics and market fundamentals, offering insights for investors navigating this complex landscape.

Institutional OTC Activity and Market Confidence

Institutional interest in WLD has remained resilient despite a 21% price decline over the past month, with Multicoin Capital's $30 million OTC deal serving as a pivotal indicator of long-term conviction. According to a report, Multicoin Capital acquired 60 million WLD tokens from the project's team in a pre-arranged transaction, exchanging 30 million USDC for the tokens. On-chain data further confirms the transaction, with a Multicoin-linked wallet transferring funds to a Worldcoin team address as reported. While the terms of the deal remain undisclosed, the sheer scale of the trade signals institutional confidence in WLD's utility as a decentralized identity protocol.

This OTC activity contrasts sharply with declining retail engagement, highlighting a shift in market dynamics. Institutional buyers often prioritize long-term value over short-term volatility, and Multicoin's move suggests they view WLD's potential as a global digital identity system as a compelling use case. However, the lack of transparency around the deal's structure raises questions about its immediate impact on liquidity. If the 60 million tokens are freely tradable, they could introduce selling pressure, particularly if market conditions deteriorate.

Token Distribution and Liquidity Mechanics

Worldcoin's token distribution model is designed to foster broad adoption but introduces inherent liquidity risks. As outlined in the project's tokenomics, 75% of the total supply is allocated to the World Community, with 60% of these tokens distributed directly to users via Orb devices or passport verification. The remaining 20% of tokens allocated to the development team and investors vest over 3–5 years, with full vesting extending into 2038. This gradual unlock schedule aims to prevent sudden supply shocks but also means liquidity will expand incrementally, creating a delicate balance between scarcity and availability.

As of April 2025, the circulating supply of WLD stood at 1.3 billion tokens, or 13% of the total supply. While this slow release supports long-term decentralization, it also means that future unlock events-particularly those tied to team and investor allocations-could introduce volatility. For instance, the 80% of team tokens vesting over five years may see increased selling pressure as 2030 approaches, depending on market conditions. Investors must monitor these unlock timelines closely, as they could either stabilize or destabilize WLD's price trajectory.

Price Projections and Market Volatility

Price forecasts for WLD in 2025 reflect a wide range of outcomes, from a conservative $1.10 to an optimistic $4.18. Recent developments, such as the adoption of Chainlink's Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), have provided a short-term boost, with WLD rising 5.0% in September 2025. Additionally, a $135 million investment and the deployment of 7,500 Orbs in the U.S. have signaled growing institutional and enterprise confidence according to market analysis.

However, these positive catalysts must be weighed against structural risks. The fixed supply of 10 billion WLD tokens, combined with regular emission schedules, creates a scenario where liquidity expansion could outpace demand. For example, if unlock events coincide with bearish market sentiment, the influx of sell orders could drive prices below key support levels. Analysts project a potential low of $1.10 in 2025, underscoring the importance of macroeconomic conditions and broader crypto market trends.

Regulatory Risks and Global Adoption

Regulatory scrutiny remains a critical wildcard for WLD's growth. Legal actions in countries like Kenya, Indonesia, and Europe have raised concerns over biometric data collection practices, with enforcement actions already impacting operations. These challenges could delay global expansion and deter institutional adoption, particularly in regions with stringent data privacy laws. While the project's decentralized identity model is innovative, regulatory alignment will be essential to scale its vision without compromising compliance.

Conclusion

Worldcoin's liquidity dynamics and institutional interest are inextricably linked to its token distribution model and strategic OTC trading activity. Multicoin Capital's $30 million investment underscores the project's long-term potential, but investors must remain cautious about liquidity risks tied to token unlocks and regulatory uncertainties. The interplay between gradual supply expansion, institutional demand, and macroeconomic factors will ultimately determine WLD's trajectory in 2025 and beyond. For those willing to navigate these complexities, WLD presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the evolving crypto landscape.