World Liberty Financial USD/Tether (USD1USDT) Market Overview

• Price consolidated near 0.9990–0.9995 range for most of the day, with a sharp selloff in early ET hours.
• Volume surged in the 07:30–08:45 ET timeframe, coinciding with a drop from 0.9992 to 0.9985.
• Mild bearish momentum seen via RSI and MACD divergence, with price near the lower Bollinger Band.
• No strong bullish reversal patterns; most candles remain neutral or bearish.
• Turnover spiked over 40 million during the sell-off, suggesting increased market participation on the downside.

The World Liberty Financial USD/Tether (USD1USDT) pair opened at 0.9998 at 12:00 ET - 1, reached a high of 0.9999, and a low of 0.9985, closing at 0.9990 by 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 106,190,166.0, and notional turnover amounted to 105,765,851.68 USD over 24 hours. Price action has shown consistent bearish pressure since the early hours of the morning with a sharp selloff followed by consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price has been trading in a narrow range for most of the day, with a key support level forming around 0.9990–0.9991. This level has been tested multiple times without a significant break below. A potential resistance zone appears near 0.9995, where the price has stalled on several occasions. Notably, the 07:30–07:45 ET candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling a shift in sentiment. The doji at 04:45 ET also suggests indecision after a moderate rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, both of which are sloping downward. The 50-period SMA currently sits at 0.9991, aligning closely with the current support level. On a daily scale, the 100-period and 200-period SMAs sit above the 50-period SMA, confirming a bearish trend structure. Price has spent most of the day below all major moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been in negative territory for much of the day, with a moderate bearish divergence noted between price and momentum in the 08:00–08:45 ET period. The RSI has ranged between 30 and 45, indicating oversold conditions, but without a strong rebound, suggesting weak buying interest. A bounce above 0.9992–0.9993 would be necessary to see a potential RSI recovery.

Bollinger Bands

The price has spent most of the day near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating low volatility and bearish pressure. The band width has been relatively narrow since early morning, with the most recent expansion occurring during the selloff between 07:30–08:00 ET. A move above the midline of the bands would indicate a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume and turnover spiked sharply during the selloff between 07:30–08:45 ET, with over 15 million contracts traded during that period. This suggests increased participation from institutional or algorithmic traders. The divergence between price and volume in the final hours of the day—where turnover declined but price continued to consolidate—indicates weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 07:30–08:45 ET swing down from 0.9992 to 0.9985, key levels at 38.2% (0.9988) and 61.8% (0.9987) have provided some support. On the daily chart, the recent drop aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting that a break below 0.9985 could trigger deeper bearish moves.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on short-term bearish setups based on the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence. A potential trade setup would involve entering a short position after a confirmed break below the 0.9990–0.9991 support level with a stop above the recent swing high at 0.9994. The target for the first move is the 0.9985–0.9983 zone, with an extended target at the 0.9980 level if the trend persists. This approach appears well-suited to the current bearish environment and aligns with the technical structure observed.