Cuatro acciones con un valor elevado, negociadas a un precio de descuento: una lista de comprobación para los inversores de valor.

The market environment has shifted from a period of broad risk-taking to one demanding disciplined patience. For years, simply putting capital to work was rewarded, with more than half of S&P 500 companies delivering annualized returns above 15%. That era, likened to walking through a casino where almost every table paid out, is giving way to a more discerning market. As 2025 concludes, around 40% of the S&P 500 is heading for a negative year. The odds have changed; the setup now favors investors who size positions thoughtfully and focus on high-probability outcomes.

This is the core context for value investing in 2026. The dominant narrative of recent years-where inflation was the central problem-has eased. The storm has passed, allowing investors to turn attention to the next challenge: labor market dynamics. Yet, for the patient investor, this shift creates fertile ground. The key strategy remains unchanged: identify high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages trading at a meaningful discount to their intrinsic value.

One curated list of such companies is the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index. This index tracks firms with Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings of "wide" that are also trading at the lowest current market prices relative to the firm's fair value estimates. It is a fertile hunting ground for long-term investors seeking high-quality stocks priced cheaply. The index's regular reconstitution ensures it stays focused on the least-expensive wide-moat names, making it a practical tool for filtering the market's noise and finding the hidden bargains that emerge when sentiment turns.

Constellation Brands: A Brand Moat at a Deep Discount

Constellation Brands stands as a prime example of a wide-moat consumer staple trading at a substantial discount. The company's economic moat is built on a portfolio of premium and craft beer brands, a collection that provides powerful pricing power and deep customer loyalty. This brand strength is the foundation of its competitive advantage, allowing it to navigate market cycles with greater resilience than its peers.

The value proposition is clear from the numbers. As of September 26, 2025, Constellation Brands was trading at a 41% discount to Morningstar's fair value estimate. That is a significant margin of safety, a key requirement for any disciplined investor. It represents a classic value setup: a high-quality business with durable advantages is being offered at a price that implies a major discount to its intrinsic worth.

Yet, the path to realizing that value hinges on execution. The primary risk is the company's strategic shift away from the mature U.S. beer market and into higher-growth categories like wine and spirits. This pivot requires capital allocation discipline and successful integration of new product lines and brands. For a value investor, the discount may reflect market skepticism about the smoothness of this transition. The wide moat provides the capability, but the company must now demonstrate it can effectively compound that advantage in its new growth arenas.

Palo Alto Networks: Cybersecurity's Sticky Moat at a 17% Discount

Palo Alto Networks presents a classic value setup in a high-quality, durable business. The company's wide moat is built on an integrated security platform that spans network, cloud, and security operations. This platform approach creates formidable switching costs; once a customer is entrenched in the ecosystem, the cost and complexity of migrating to a competitor become prohibitively high. This entrenchment drives exceptional customer retention and lifetime value, a hallmark of a business with a wide economic moat.

The business model is further strengthened by powerful secular tailwinds. As cyber threats grow more complex, IT security teams are actively consolidating vendors to rationalize costs and avoid data silos. This shift toward holistic platform solutions is a direct opportunity for Palo Alto, which can leverage its existing footprint to upsell and cross-sell additional modules. The company's dominance is evident, with sales into all the Fortune 100 and more than three-fourths of the Global 2000.

Yet, the stock has been in a rut, trading flat for the year. The primary reason is slowing sales growth, a common challenge for a company of its scale. However, the current valuation offers a clear margin of safety. The stock trades at a 17% discount to our $225 fair value estimate. This discount is the key for a long-term holder, providing a buffer against execution risks and market volatility.

The critical catalyst for unlocking value lies in the company's two recent acquisitions. The market's skepticism likely centers on whether these deals will dilute the company's target adjusted free cash flow margin of 40% or more by fiscal 2028. For a value investor, the disciplined execution of these integrations without sacrificing profitability is the make-or-break factor. If Palo Alto can achieve this, it will demonstrate the operational discipline required to compound its wide moat advantage.

In the end, the investment case hinges on the durability of the moat versus the price paid. The business model is sticky, the market tailwinds are real, and the discount is significant. For a patient investor, this setup-where a high-quality compounder is offered at a price that implies a major discount to its intrinsic worth-aligns perfectly with the value investing philosophy.

Fortune Brands Innovations: A 30% Discount in Home and Security

Fortune Brands Innovations offers a classic value setup in a defensive, cash-generative business. Its wide moat is built on a portfolio of well-known, trusted brands in home and security products. This includes leading names in plumbing fixtures, outdoor living, and door hardware. These are not discretionary luxuries; they are essential components for new construction and the ongoing repair and remodeling market. This creates a stable, recurring demand stream that is relatively insulated from the whims of the broader economy, providing a durable foundation for long-term compounding.

The numbers confirm a significant discount. Analysis suggests the stock is trading at a 30% discount to its estimated fair value. With the share price around US$55, that implies a fair value of roughly US$78.57. This gap represents a meaningful margin of safety for a patient investor. The business model itself is sound, with earnings forecast to grow at an impressive 24.5% annually over the next three years, outpacing the market average.

Yet, the primary risk to this thesis is cyclical. The company's demand is closely tied to housing activity. A downturn in new home starts or a slowdown in the repair and remodeling sector could pressure sales, particularly for its products in the Water and Outdoors segments. This vulnerability is the reason the market is pricing the stock so deeply. The discount likely reflects a wait-and-see stance on the housing cycle.

The catalyst for a re-rating is straightforward: a sustained recovery in housing. If the housing market stabilizes or improves, the company's defensive, high-quality brands are well-positioned to benefit from increased demand. Given its wide moat and the significant discount, even a modest improvement in housing sentiment could drive a substantial revaluation. For a value investor, the patience required is the price of admission. The business is a compounder with a moat; the current price suggests the market is betting it won't get the chance to do so.

The Value Investor's Checklist: Principles for Evaluating These Opportunities

For the disciplined investor, finding a high-quality business at a discount is only the first step. The real work begins in applying a consistent set of principles to separate true bargains from value traps. Based on the examples of Constellation, Palo Alto, and Fortune Brands, four core tenets should guide any evaluation.

First, always assess the durability of the competitive advantage. A wide moat is the foundation for compounding; without it, even a cheap price offers no long-term promise. The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index, which includes these companies, exists because it tracks firms with sound balance sheets and significant competitive advantages. This is not a secondary consideration. It is the primary filter. A brand like Constellation's, a platform like Palo Alto's, or a portfolio of trusted home brands like Fortune Brands'-these are the assets that can generate durable cash flows. If the moat is narrow or eroding, the discount becomes irrelevant.

Second, a margin of safety is essential. The discount to intrinsic value provides the buffer that protects capital when the future does not unfold perfectly. The numbers here are stark: Constellation trades at a 41% discount, Fortune Brands at a 30% discount. These are not minor markdowns but substantial margins of safety. They imply the market is pricing in significant downside risk or a prolonged period of stagnation. For a patient investor, this gap is the very reason to consider the stock. It is the price of admission to a potential long-term compounding machine.

Third, identify specific, near-term catalysts for re-rating. The discount will not close on its own; it requires a catalyst. For Constellation, the catalyst is the successful execution of its strategic pivot into wine and spirits. For Palo Alto, it is the seamless integration of its two recent acquisitions without diluting its target adjusted free cash flow margins of 40% or more. These are not vague hopes but concrete operational milestones. A value investor must ask: what must the company do, and by when, to justify a return to fair value? The catalyst provides a timeline and a measurable goal.

Finally, monitor execution risk and macroeconomic headwinds. Even the highest-quality business can be delayed by poor management or a sudden shift in the broader economy. Fortune Brands' thesis is particularly exposed to the housing cycle, a macroeconomic headwind that could pressure its core demand. Palo Alto's acquisitions introduce execution risk. The market's skepticism, reflected in the discount, often centers on these very risks. The value investor must weigh the strength of the moat against these specific vulnerabilities. The wide moat provides a cushion, but it does not eliminate the need for careful monitoring.

In practice, this checklist turns a list of "cheap stocks" into a framework for patient capital. It focuses the mind on the business's ability to compound, the price paid for that privilege, the path to revaluation, and the risks that could derail it. When applied rigorously, it transforms the hunt for bargains into a disciplined investment process.