Wheaton Precious (WPM) Plummets 4.18%: Volatility and Opportunity in the Streaming Sector

Summary
• Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) opens the day at $131.6045 and drops to a low of $129.3301 as of 2026-03-18 14:20:15.
• Intraday price change of -4.18%, with a current price of $131.45.
• Sector news highlights aggressive financing and drilling moves in junior miners, while WPM's fair value estimate rises to CA$259.31 in Simply Wall St's updated model.
• Analysts remain split, with bearish and bullish outlooks shaping the near-term narrative.

Wheaton Precious Metals is under pressure in midday trading, with a sharp decline signaling short-term bearish momentum. The move comes amid a broader metals and mining sector that continues to attract capital for new projects. Analysts and model revisions are pointing to both optimism and caution, as updated guidance and evolving assumptions create a tug-of-war in investor sentiment. With a high turnover and strong volume, the stock is commanding attention.

Updated Fair Value Estimates and Analyst Divergence Drive Volatility
Wheaton Precious Metals has seen a sharp selloff following Simply Wall St’s updated model, which raised its fair value estimate from CA$190.41 to CA$259.31. This suggests a re-rating is underfoot, but not without controversy. While the bullish narrative emphasizes a 22% annual revenue growth assumption, backed by high-grade projects like Salobo III and Platreef, the bearish narrative points to tighter metal demand, slower project delivery, and shifting regulatory landscapes. With TD Securities trimming its target to $164 from $165 after reviewing 2026 guidance, market participants are clearly parsing the diverging views. This creates a volatile environment where short-term traders are reacting quickly to evolving analyst commentary and model adjustments.

Mining and Metals Sector Sees Mixed Developments as Wheaton Faces Internal Divergence
The broader Mining and Metals sector is seeing a flurry of activity, from financing announcements to drilling updates. American Tungsten has just closed a $40 million bought deal, while Lion One and Montero are pushing forward with exploration and infrastructure investments. Meanwhile, Canuc Resources reported high-grade gold intersections at its East Sudbury Project. These developments indicate a sector on the move, but Wheaton Precious Metals remains in a unique position. Unlike its peers focusing on near-term production and capital raises, WPM is navigating a transition in leadership and production guidance, which introduces uncertainty. This divergence in focus may be exacerbating its volatility as investors weigh long-term streaming growth against near-term execution risks.

Options and ETF Opportunities Amid WPM’s Short-Term Volatility
• RSI: 29.76 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.536 (bearish), Signal Line: 2.053, Histogram: -2.589
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $166.32, Middle $150.55, Lower $134.78
• 200-day average: $111.27 (well above)
• Support/Resistance: 30D $138.56–139.26; 200D $89.88–91.46

Wheaton Precious Metals is trading at a sharp discount to its 200-day moving average, with technical indicators suggesting a potential bounce is in play. The RSI has crossed into oversold territory, while the MACD remains bearish, indicating that a rebound could be delayed. However, the low turnover (0.123%) and high implied volatility (up to 166.67%) suggest that the options market is pricing in significant near-term uncertainty. Traders should focus on key levels: a break above $138.56 (30D support) could trigger a rally toward $150.55 (middle Bollinger Band), while a retest of $129.33 (intraday low) would test the lower Bollinger Band as a potential floor.

• WPM20260327P130: Put contract with strike price $130, expiring March 27, 2026.
- Implied Volatility (IV): 57.62% (high)
- LVR: 30.53% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4366 (moderately bearish)
- Theta: -0.0153 (low decay)
- Gamma: 0.0315 (responsive to price movement)
- Turnover: 4350
- This contract is well-suited for a bearish strategy with moderate risk. The high IV and moderate delta mean it reacts well to continued downward momentum, while the moderate gamma suggests it will adjust quickly if the stock moves lower.

• WPM20260327C130: Call contract with strike price $130, expiring March 27, 2026.
- Implied Volatility (IV): 46.48% (moderate)
- LVR: 27.69% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5702 (moderately bullish)
- Theta: -0.4568 (high decay)
- Gamma: 0.0389 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 948
- This option is best for a bullish bounce scenario. The high gamma ensures it becomes more sensitive to upward price swings, while the moderate IV keeps cost under control. However, the high theta means it decays rapidly if the rally is delayed.

Given the current price scenario, WPM20260327P130 is the more compelling short-side play, while bulls should keep a tight stop above $134.78 (lower Bollinger Band). Watch for a potential reversal from oversold RSI levels or a breakdown below $129.33.

Backtest Wheaton Precious Stock Performance
The backtest of WPM's performance after a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating the strategy's resilience and potential for positive gains:

WPM Faces a Pivotal Intraday: Act Now Before the March 27 Options Expiry
Wheaton Precious Metals is in a critical phase of its 2026 story. With its price near key support levels and analysts split between cautious and optimistic outlooks, the next 48 hours will be vital for both technical and fundamental traders. The stock has the potential to bounce from the RSI oversold zone or continue lower toward the $129.33 level. Investors should closely watch the $138.56 resistance as a potential reversal point, especially with the March 27 options expiry approaching. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the sector leader, is down 3.73% and may offer further directional clues if the broader metals market continues to shift. Watch for a definitive break below $129.33 or a strong reversal above $138.56 to trigger a trade setup.