Whales and Profits Stifle SHIB's Breakout Ambitions

SHIB, one of the leading memecoins, has seen a mixed performance in recent weeks, with short-term price gains unable to offset weaker three-month trends. At the time of reporting, SHIB trades at $0.00001282, reflecting a 4.1% increase over the past seven days and a 2% rise in the last 24 hours. However, three-month gains remain at a modest 3.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in sustaining momentum.

One of the key factors influencing SHIB’s price has been the activity of large holders, or "whales." On September 5, SHIB whales increased their holdings from 692.68 trillion tokens to 703.95 trillion, representing a jump in value of approximately $135 million at that time. This accumulation was followed by a rapid sell-off, with the stash dropping to 701.93 trillion within hours, a net offload of nearly $25 million. This in-and-out movement mirrored the token’s price action, as SHIB briefly climbed from $0.00001206 to $0.00001248 before stalling.

The increased selling pressure is further reflected in SHIB’s supply metrics. Between September 4 and September 8, the percent of SHIB supply in profit rose from 20.86% to 29.64%, its highest level in two weeks. This trend suggests that both retail investors and whales are using the recent price rise to take profits, limiting the potential for a sustained breakout.

Despite these headwinds, SHIB remains within a key breakout structure. The token has pushed above the $0.00001253 level, but sellers have quickly capped the upward move. To confirm a stronger bullish bias, SHIB must break above $0.00001352 and eventually reach $0.00001597, which would signal a more robust rally. On the downside, if SHIB fails to hold $0.00001253 and then $0.00001202, it risks deeper losses, particularly if whales continue to offload remaining positions from their September 5 accumulation.

A potential sign of continued buying interest is the Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures buying versus selling pressure. The MFI has recently reached a new high, suggesting dip buying activity. However, the index has yet to surpass its late-July peak, indicating that buying pressure remains cautious rather than aggressive. A clean break above $0.00001352 would not only confirm bullish momentum but also validate a breakout from the ascending triangle pattern.

While SHIB faces ongoing pressure from profit-taking and whale activity, the market remains cautiously optimistic about potential upward moves, particularly if fresh inflows or renewed buying pressure emerge. Analysts will closely watch both on-chain metrics and price action to gauge whether SHIB can overcome its current challenges and reestablish a stronger upward trajectory.