Whales and Algorithms Align—XLM's Breakout Could Begin

Stellar’s XLM has flipped bullish for the first time in over two weeks, as indicated by the SuperTrend technical indicator. According to analyst Ali Martinez, this shift was observed on the 4-hour chart, with the price breaking into a key ceiling around $0.37–$0.373 following a prolonged period of consolidation and downward pressure through late August and early September. The reversal coincided with a shift in momentum, as buyers began to establish higher lows, pushing the price back into the upper end of a $0.35–$0.36 range. The SuperTrend cloud, which had previously acted as a resistance, has now transformed into a support level, and a “Buy” tag has appeared on the chart, signaling renewed optimism among market participants.

The current key resistance levels for XLM include $0.373 (the upper end of the recent range) and $0.38–$0.385, with a longer-term target near $0.42. Immediate support is located at $0.362–$0.365, while stronger support is found at $0.35, the base of the SuperTrend range. A sustained close above $0.373 would validate the bullish case, with a potential move toward $0.385 and beyond. Conversely, a failure to clear this level could keep XLM in a consolidation phase between $0.355 and $0.373 until a new catalyst emerges. A daily close below $0.35 would invalidate the SuperTrend signal and increase the risk of a pullback toward $0.345–$0.34.

Whale activity and derivatives market behavior further support the bullish narrative. Analysis from CryptoQuant shows that recent futures trades have been dominated by large whale orders, indicating a growing influence of institutional or high-net-worth investors in shaping XLM’s price action. These orders suggest a willingness to accumulate positions, potentially fueling further upward momentum. On the derivatives front, Open Interest (OI) has increased by 9.21% to $343.77 million, signaling renewed speculative activity in XLM’s futures market. The rise in OI suggests traders are opening new contracts rather than closing existing ones, which aligns with the SuperTrend’s bullish signal and could amplify XLM’s upside potential.

Retail and institutional positioning also reflects strong bullish sentiment. According to data from CoinGlass, Binance’s Long/Short Ratio shows 59.04% of accounts are long XLM, compared to 40.96% shorting the asset, highlighting a significant tilt toward buyers. While this imbalance supports a continued bullish trajectory, it also raises the risk of sharp corrections if the price fails to hold near-term support levels. The market’s current structure suggests that any weakness in XLM’s price could lead to a sudden shift in sentiment, particularly if long positions are liquidated.

Taken together, the combination of a bullish SuperTrend flip, whale-driven futures activity, rising Open Interest, and long-heavy positioning indicates that XLM may be primed for a breakout. However, the sustainability of this momentum will depend on the price holding above critical support levels and the continuation of speculative demand in derivatives markets. Analysts continue to monitor these dynamics closely for confirmation of a sustained upward trend.