Whales Accumulate HBAR as Retail Buyers Fade: Can $0.29 Be Next?

HBAR has rebounded nearly 9% in the past 24 hours, trimming part of its 15% weekly loss, as on-chain metrics indicate easing selling pressure and early signs of accumulation. Exchange inflows-coins sent for selling-have dropped 88% since October 11, falling from $4.43 million to $517,000, signaling reduced short-term panic. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks larger wallet movements, has turned positive to around 0.10, confirming that whales are adding capital rather than exiting. This trend began rising around October 7 and persisted through the price crash, indicating large holders maintained confidence. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI), reflecting retail activity, is trending lower, suggesting weaker retail participation and a temporary reliance on whales to offset selling pressure. Together, these metrics point to early-stage accumulation driven by large wallets preparing for a potential recovery phase.

Technical indicators also suggest a possible reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bullish divergence: while HBAR's price hit a lower low during the recent crash, the RSI formed a higher low, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Prices remain below a descending trendline but are showing signs of slowing bearish momentum. A breakout above $0.22-a resistance level that has repeatedly capped recoveries-could propel HBAR toward $0.25, with potential for further gains to $0.30 if momentum holds. However, the structure remains fragile below the trendline. A drop below $0.16 could invalidate the rebound, exposing support at $0.14.

Institutional activity and whale behavior reinforce the bullish narrative. Mega whale wallets holding over $10 million in HBAR surged from 81.72% to 87.56% between July 9 and July 15, signaling strong accumulation. The Smart Money Index, which tracks institutional and experienced trader activity, has declined to 0.98, reflecting reduced exposure by sophisticated investors. Despite this, the Chaikin Money Flow reset to a neutral stance, suggesting renewed buying potential. Analysts project a 27% rally to $0.29 if the critical $0.23 support holds.

HBAR's recent performance is also influenced by broader market dynamics. A government shutdown delayed U.S. SEC ETF approvals, contributing to institutional caution and volatility. However, positive developments, including SWIFT's blockchain trials and Grayscale's filing for a Delaware trust, highlight growing institutional interest. These factors, combined with improved on-chain metrics, position HBAR for potential upward momentum, contingent on sustained whale accumulation and retail participation.