Weight Loss Drug Market Could Reach $200 Billion by 2031, With 16 New GLP-1 Drugs Ready To Launch

According to analysts from Morningstar and Pitchbook, it is estimated that by 2029, the weight loss drug market will see the launch of 16 new GLP-1 class drugs, competing for the lucrative market currently dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

In a joint report released on Monday (September 9), analysts estimated that by 2031, the market size for obesity treatments will expand to $200 billion, partly due to the expected higher penetration rate in the diabetes market.

At that time, these 16 new GLP-1 drugs could account for about one-third of the market, or about $70 billion, while Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the two giants in weight loss drugs, will still retain nearly 70% of the market share.

The report also pointed out that the stocks of Novo and Eli Lilly are overvalued. So far this year, Novo Nordisk's stock has risen by more than 25%, while Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 52%.

The surge in demand for the current best-selling weight loss drugs, Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound, has made more competitors envious and they have begun to test their own weight loss therapies. Currently, pharmaceutical giants such as Amgen and Pfizer are testing their candidate drugs in clinical trials.

Other potential new therapies include drugs from Roche, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Zealand Pharma, as well as the next-generation drugs from Novo and Eli Lilly. These GLP-1 class drugs still need to go through clinical trials and are expected to be launched in three to four years.

Amgen's weight loss drug MariTide, which is currently being tested, is one of the most anticipated weight loss drugs on the market. A previous early-stage clinical trial showed that patients treated with the highest dose of the drug lost an average of 14.5% of their body weight in 12 weeks, and MariTide also seems to help patients maintain a longer-term weight loss effect after stopping the drug.

More competition also means that it will put pressure on the prices of GLP-1 class weight loss drugs. The report pointed out that new entrants, competing for market share, are expected to lower prices.

The report also pointed out that in the next 18 months, large pharmaceutical companies involved in the weight loss drug field will carry out large-scale acquisitions, targeting small companies specializing in developing obesity drugs. Potential acquisition targets include Structure Therapeutics, Viking Therapeutics, and Altimmune, among others.