Pronóstico semanal de activos: Niveles técnicos y factores que pueden influir en los precios de USD/JPY, S&P 500, oro, plata y cobre.

The immediate price context for this week's major assets reveals a market in a state of technical tension, where metals face overextension while the dollar-yen pair sets up for a policy-driven shift. Equities, meanwhile, await confirmation of their underlying resilience.

For the S&P 500, the setup is one of high valuation meeting solid fundamentals. The index is trading near a key support level of 6,750, with a weekly target range of 6,850-6,900 in sight. This path hinges on the upcoming US labor data, specifically the Non-Farm Payrolls report and hourly earnings. Strong numbers could temper expectations for Federal Reserve easing, while softer prints would reinforce the dovish outlook that has supported equities. The broader thesis from Goldman Sachs, which forecasts a 12% total return for the S&P 500 in 2026, rests on continued earnings growth, but the market's elevated forward P/E ratio of 22x means it is vulnerable to any disappointment.

Commodities tell a different story. Gold has found a floor after a recent pullback, with the price currently near $4,476. The immediate technical battle is for control above the $4,445 support level, with resistance looming at $4,530. The metal's trend remains bullish on the daily chart, but its recent rally has pushed momentum indicators into neutral territory, leaving it exposed to a reversal if Fed policy expectations shift. Silver, often a more volatile counterpart, is trading at $76.92. Its technical picture shows modest support near $76, but the broader market's risk sentiment and the dollar's strength are key overhangs.

The most pronounced technical peak is in industrial metals. Copper prices have been boosted by inventory stocking, but they now face a clear ceiling. Resistance is positioned above $13,200 per ton, a level that has historically capped rallies. This technical overextension in copper, a barometer for global growth, contrasts with the more fundamental-driven moves in gold and the policy-driven dynamics in the currency market.

That brings us to the USD/JPY, which is trading near 156.00. The weekly target here is a shift toward the downside, with 155.55 support as a near-term floor and the 155.00 level acting as a key psychological barrier. The catalyst is not technical but policy-driven. The Bank of Japan's recent shift away from ultra-loose policy creates a fundamental divergence with the Federal Reserve's easing path, which is expected to cut rates by nearly 60 basis points this year. This dynamic sets the stage for a potential dollar-yen re-rating, making the weekly technical levels a battleground for that broader trend.

Asset-Specific Outlook and Price Targets

Translating the current backdrop into specific weekly scenarios reveals a market poised for divergence. For the S&P 500, the path is binary. A decisive break above the 6,900 weekly target would confirm the bullish thesis, aligning with Goldman Sachs's forecast for a 12% total return in 2026. However, a failure to hold the 6,750 support level risks a sharp correction. Historical patterns suggest that after three years of double-digit gains, the following year often sees a pullback of roughly 14% before the trend resumes higher.

Precious metals face a more pronounced headwind. The recent rally, driven by FOMO-driven demand, is expected to fade, leading to a significant unwind. Capital Economics forecasts a 21% decline in gold by year-end, targeting a price of $3,500 an ounce. Silver, which surged 150% in 2025, is seen falling to a range of $65-$70. The technical overextension in copper is even more acute, with analysts warning the price is unsustainable due to inventory stocking. The consensus view is for a 20% pullback, with the metal expected to ease to around $10,500 a ton by year-end as supply distortions resolve.

The USD/JPY presents a unique dynamic. While the weekly technical setup favors a move toward 155.00, the downside is capped by the dollar's inherent haven appeal. The pair's recent grind lower reflects the widening policy divergence between a cautiously tightening Bank of Japan and a Fed on an easing path. This structural shift creates a fundamental bias for the yen, but the dollar's safe-haven status limits the magnitude of any sell-off, making the 155.00 level the primary bearish target for the week.

Risk Scenarios and What to Watch

The weekly outlook hinges on a few critical variables. For metals, the primary risk is a rapid loss of FOMO-driven demand, accelerating the projected 20% declines. The rally has been fueled by retail investor-driven exuberance, and as prices reach all-time highs, the fundamental supply response-more recycling and higher production-begins to offset tight demand. Watch for signs that the "high prices are the cure for high prices" dynamic is taking hold, which would quickly undermine the technical bullishness.

For the USD/JPY, the key watchpoint is the US ADP jobs report. This data will test the strength of the yen's policy-driven rally against the broader dollar backdrop. The pair's grind lower reflects the widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, but the dollar's inherent haven appeal caps the yen's gains. A surprisingly strong ADP print could signal labor market resilience, reinforcing Fed easing expectations and providing a floor for the dollar, thereby halting the yen's advance.

Equities face a binary test of quality. The setup assumes that steady earnings growth can justify high valuations. The catalyst is the quality of that growth versus the market's elevated forward P/E ratio of 22x. Watch for signs of corporate re-leveraging, a key investment theme for 2026, which could signal confidence in sustained profitability. However, any evidence that earnings growth is decelerating or that the AI productivity boost is not materializing as expected would directly challenge the bull case.

Gold presents a unique scenario where a major geopolitical escalation could provide a powerful safe-haven bid, overriding the technical sell-off. While the primary forecast points to a fade in demand and a 21% decline from current levels, periods of high global tension and financial instability have historically increased demand for gold as a trusted store of value. The metal's recent technical strength, with price comfortably above key moving averages, provides a buffer, but a sharp geopolitical shock could quickly reassert its role as a haven, creating a powerful countertrend.