WD-40 experimenta una caída del 11% debido a decepciones en las cifras de resultados y preocupaciones relacionadas con las previsiones financieras. ¿Qué será ahora del icónico fabricante?

Summary
• WD-40 (WDFC) trades at $180.54, down 11.28% from its previous close of $203.50
• Intraday range spans $175.62 (52W low) to $183.58
• Q4 revenue flat at $154.4M, GAAP EPS of $1.28 misses estimates by 11.4%
• Dividend hike to $1.02/share announced, but full-year guidance below analyst expectations

WD-40’s stock is in freefall after a mixed Q4 earnings report and cautious full-year outlook. Despite a dividend increase and strong gross margin, the market reacted harshly to below-estimate earnings and soft revenue growth. With the stock trading near its 52-week low, investors are scrambling to assess whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

Earnings Miss and Guidance Drag Down Investor Sentiment
WD-40’s 11.28% intraday drop stems from a Q4 earnings report that highlighted structural challenges. While revenue matched Wall Street’s $154.4M target, GAAP EPS of $1.28 fell 11.4% below the $1.45 consensus. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $642.5M at the midpoint—1% below analyst estimates—and reported a 15.1% operating margin, down from 16.4% in the prior year. Management’s cautious tone, including softness in distributor markets and a 7% decline in operating income, signaled underlying fragility. Despite a 14.3% increase in the dividend, the market interpreted the guidance as a lack of conviction in long-term growth potential.

Consumer Staples Sector Sinks with WDFC as Procter & Gamble Slides
The broader consumer staples sector mirrored WDFC’s decline, with Procter & Gamble (PG) down 0.14% intraday. While PG’s drop was modest, the sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic pressures—such as inflation and shifting consumer spending—amplified WDFC’s volatility. Unlike PG’s diversified household portfolio, WD-40’s reliance on niche maintenance products and recent divestitures (e.g., homecare brands) left it exposed to market skepticism. The sector’s muted performance underscored investors’ preference for defensive plays over growth-oriented names.

Options and ETF Plays for a Volatile WDFC: Leverage the Put-Call Imbalance
• 200-day MA: $216.31 (well above current price)
• RSI: 41.94 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.318 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $193.73 (lower band) vs. $180.54 (current price)

WD-4C’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition but a long-term bearish bias. Key support levels at $193.73 (lower Bollinger) and $194.89 (200D MA) are critical for near-term stability. The 52W low of $175.62 could trigger further selling if breached. Given the stock’s volatility, leveraged ETFs and options offer asymmetric risk/reward.

Top Options Picks:
• WDFC20260116P180 (Put):
- Strike: $180 | Expiration: Jan 16 | IV: 45.28% | Leverage: 47.93% | Delta: -0.413 | Theta: -0.0559 | Turnover: 34,075
- IV (high volatility) and Leverage (47.93%) amplify downside potential. Delta (-0.413) suggests moderate sensitivity to price moves. Theta (-0.0559) indicates time decay is manageable for a Jan 16 expiration. Payoff under 5% downside (to $171.51): $8.49 per contract.
• WDFC20260116C180 (Call):
- Strike: $180 | Expiration: Jan 16 | IV: 24.59% | Leverage: 46.71% | Delta: 0.6397 | Theta: -0.4771 | Turnover: 16,679
- Delta (0.6397) offers strong directional exposure. IV (24.59%) is moderate, balancing risk and reward. Theta (-0.4771) warns of rapid time decay, making this a short-term bet. Payoff under 5% upside (to $189.57): $9.57 per contract.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize the WDFC20260116P180 for a 5% downside scenario. Bulls may consider the WDFC20260116C180 if the stock rebounds above $193.73 (lower Bollinger Band).

Backtest WD-40 Stock Performance
The backtest of WDFC's performance after a -11% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. The 3-Day win rate is 48.52%, the 10-Day win rate is 46.82%, and the 30-Day win rate is 51.27%. While the win rates indicate a slight edge, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 1.12%, suggesting that the ETF has struggled to recover from the significant intraday plunge.

Bottom-Fishing or Further Deterioration? Key Levels to Watch
WD-40’s 11% drop reflects a mix of earnings disappointment and macroeconomic headwinds. While the stock’s oversold RSI and 52W low proximity suggest a potential rebound, the bearish technicals and weak guidance point to continued pressure. Investors should monitor the $193.73 (lower Bollinger Band) and $194.89 (200D MA) support levels. A breakdown below $175.62 (52W low) could trigger panic selling. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble’s -0.14% move highlights sector-wide caution. For now, the WDFC20260116P180 put offers a high-leverage, high-IV bet on further declines. Watch for a catalyst—either a rebound in distributor sales or a dividend cut—to determine the next move.