WBTC Market Overview: 2025-09-23

• Price declined from 9.3e-07 to 8.9e-07 before a late rally pushed it to 9.3e-07 by 12:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD suggested bearish momentum early, followed by mixed signals toward the close.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:00–21:00 ET window, with volume spiking over 13,800.
• Key support held at 8.9e-07 and 9.0e-07, while resistance formed at 9.2e-07 and 9.4e-07.
• No clear reversal pattern emerged, though a bullish engulfing formation appeared at 07:45–08:00 ET.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, Wormhole/Bitcoin (WBTC) opened at 9.2e-07, reached a high of 9.6e-07, fell to a low of 8.9e-07, and closed at 9.3e-07. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 338,693.0 units, with notional turnover averaging $304.8 per 15-minute interval.

The price action formed a bearish bias early in the session, with a sharp decline from 9.2e-07 to 8.9e-07 between 16:00 and 19:00 ET. A consolidation period followed, before a bullish push occurred overnight, breaking 9.3e-07 and closing near that level. A bearish divergence in RSI around 01:00 ET suggested selling pressure, while a later divergence pointed to potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both below the price, reinforcing the short-term bearish tilt.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the volatile 19:00–21:00 ET window, indicating rising uncertainty. The price spent much of the day within the bands but briefly touched the upper band during the overnight rally. A Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at 9.2e-07 aligned with a key psychological level and appeared to attract buying interest multiple times.

Volume spiked above 13,000 during the bearish move, with strong selling interest between 17:15 and 19:30 ET. The notional turnover aligned with volume, confirming price action. However, the late session rally occurred on lower volume, suggesting the move may lack conviction. A potential divergence between price and volume suggests caution for short-term buyers.

The MACD line turned negative in the first hours of the session, confirming bearish momentum, but crossed back above the signal line after 07:00 ET. This suggests an ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The RSI moved below 30 twice during the session, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to produce a clear reversal pattern. A bearish engulfing candle at 01:45 ET and a bullish engulfing at 07:45 ET both showed strong directional bias but lacked follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern appearing after a confirmed Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, provided RSI is below 30 and volume is increasing. A stop-loss could be placed just below the low of the engulfing candle, with a take-profit level at the nearest psychological resistance or 1.618 extension. This approach may aim to capture a short-term bounce from oversold conditions while using Fibonacci levels to refine risk-reward ratios.