WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) Market Overview

• Price surged to a high of $0.01819 before consolidating near $0.01805.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged early, followed by a pullback in late ET hours.
• Volatility expanded in the early morning with a high-low range of $0.01819–$0.0177.
• Turnover spiked during the rally, confirming the breakout attempt.
• A potential bearish reversal is emerging as price nears the 0.01816–0.01819 resistance.

At 12:00 ET–1, WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) opened at $0.0177 and surged to a 24-hour high of $0.01819 before consolidating at $0.01805 by 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of 8.22 million contracts and a notional turnover of approximately $148,000, reflecting heightened trading interest amid a volatile price swing.

The 15-minute chart shows a bullish breakout attempt from $0.01809 to $0.01819 during the early morning ET hours, followed by a gradual pullback. Key resistance appears at $0.01816–$0.01819, where price has shown multiple rejections. On the downside, $0.01803 and $0.01795 have acted as short-term support levels. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around $0.01801–$0.01803, but a doji near $0.01805 suggests indecision. A potential bearish reversal could form if price fails to hold above $0.01805.

Moving averages indicate a bullish bias in the short-term with the 20-period line above the 50-period line, suggesting upward momentum. However, the 50-period line is flattening near $0.01803, which may signal exhaustion if the rally fails to continue. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are aligned near $0.01805, offering a mixed signal with some support for continuation but also warning of a potential reversal.

The MACD remains in positive territory, confirming ongoing bullish momentum, while the RSI has pulled back to 54, indicating balanced buyer and seller activity. Bollinger Bands show recent expansion following the morning’s move to $0.01819, with the current price sitting near the upper band, a sign of strong overbought conditions. The volatility contraction observed during the overnight hours may precede a breakout or reversal in the coming 24 hours.

Fibonacci retracement levels suggest key resistance at 61.8% ($0.01816) and 78.6% ($0.01819) of the recent bullish move from $0.01783 to $0.01819. Price action near these levels has shown hesitation, implying a high probability of a near-term reversal if the move fails to confirm.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period EMA, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. This strategy is reinforced by the MACD and RSI aligning in bullish territory. However, the bearish doji and resistance at $0.01816–$0.01819 suggest a reversal may be imminent. A backtest of this strategy using the 15-minute OHLCV data shows mixed results, with some profitable entries but also notable drawdowns when price fails to hold above key Fibonacci and moving average levels. The strategy appears strongest when used in conjunction with a bearish divergence on the RSI, which may offer a more refined exit signal.