WAX/Tether Market Overview for October 12, 2025

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• WAXPUSDT fell to a 24-hour low of $0.01285 before stabilizing near $0.01305.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 19:00 ET, with a key bearish reversal forming around 20:30 ET.
• Strong volume expansion occurred between 20:00–21:00 ET but failed to confirm a recovery.
• RSI bottomed at oversold levels, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Price remains below key 20/50-period 15-minute moving averages, indicating bearish bias.

WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $0.01341 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.01346 and a low of $0.01285 before closing at $0.01346 at 12:00 ET on October 12. Total volume over the period was 21,025,182.0, and notional turnover reached approximately $275,848.36. The pair appears to have tested and rejected a critical support level multiple times, suggesting increased pressure from short-term bears.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart show a distinct bearish breakdown after a consolidation period between $0.01325 and $0.01335. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 20:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support zone between $0.01295 and $0.01305 appears to have capped further declines, and a doji at 04:45 ET suggests indecision. A bullish reversal is forming as price retests this support area.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sit above the current price, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is approaching the 100-period line, hinting at potential convergence that could signal a continuation of the bearish trend. Price remains below the 200-period daily average, suggesting a longer-term downtrend is intact.

RSI dipped into oversold territory, reaching a low of 27.2, which may support a near-term bounce. MACD crossed below the signal line at 19:45 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. However, a divergence in RSI and price during the 02:00–03:00 ET window suggests potential for a short-term countertrend rally. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has widened significantly since 19:00 ET, reflecting increased uncertainty.

Price remains within the Bollinger Band channel, with the lower band sitting near $0.01295. A close above the 20-period moving average would indicate a possible near-term recovery, but as of 12:00 ET, such confirmation has not materialized. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 11 breakdown sits near $0.01314, which may serve as a potential pivot point.

Looking ahead, investors should watch for a breakout above $0.01325 or a retest of the $0.01285 level for confirmation of either a recovery or further bearish extension. The market may remain in a trading range if the $0.01295–$0.01305 zone holds, but a breakout in either direction could signal the next phase of the trend. Volatility remains elevated, and unexpected news or macro shifts could accelerate price movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy involves a trend-following system based on the convergence of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on a 15-minute chart. Crossovers above the 50-period trigger a long position, while crossovers below signal an exit or short entry. A stop-loss is placed below the most recent swing low, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the trend leg. Given today’s market action, the strategy would have triggered a short entry at 19:45 ET upon the MACD crossover and the 50-period moving average crossing below the 20-period. A stop-loss placed just above the 04:45 ET doji at $0.01309 would have limited losses during the countertrend bounce. A take-profit at $0.01295–$0.01305 would have captured the bounce but would have been retested at 05:45 ET. The strategy appears to align well with today’s price action, but the high volatility and false breakouts suggest the need for tighter stop-loss placement or additional confirmation signals to avoid whipsaws.