D-Wave Quantum Soared 10.03%, Can Quantum Computing's Hype Sustain This Momentum?

Summary
• QBTS stock surged 10.03% intraday to $19.35, approaching its 52-week high of $20.56
• B. Riley raised price target to $22, Canaccord initiated coverage at $20
• $400M equity offering fuels expansion and acquisition ambitions

The quantum computing sector is ablaze as D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) defies gravity with a double-digit intraday rally. With institutional analysts boosting price targets and the stock trading near its historic peak, investors are scrambling to decode whether this surge reflects genuine technological progress or speculative fervor. Today’s $19.55 intraday high and $18.06 low highlight the stock’s volatile trajectory in a market hungry for the next big thing.

Quantum Computing Optimism and Analyst Upgrades Drive QBTS Surge
D-Wave Quantum’s meteoric rise stems from a confluence of analyst upgrades and sector-wide optimism. B. Riley’s price target increase to $22 and Canaccord’s initiation at $20 signal institutional confidence in the company’s $400M equity-funded expansion plans. Simultaneously, the stock benefits from broader quantum computing momentum, as billionaire investors like Israel Englander and Ken Griffin pivot toward Alphabet’s quantum advancements. This creates a narrative where QBTS is positioned as a speculative proxy for the sector’s long-term potential, despite its current unprofitability and high price-to-sales ratio of 251.53.

Semiconductor Sector Gains Momentum on AI-Driven Demand
The semiconductors and semiconductor equipment sector is riding a tailwind as AI infrastructure demand fuels a $125.5B equipment spending forecast for 2025. While QBTS’s quantum computing niche diverges from traditional semiconductor manufacturing, the sector’s overall optimism—driven by TSMC’s 2025 sales forecast revision and ASML’s lithography milestones—creates a supportive backdrop. However, QBTS’s 10.03% intraday gain outpaces the sector’s broader trends, suggesting its move is more tied to speculative positioning than fundamental sector dynamics.

Options Playbook: Leveraging QBTS’s Volatility with Precision
• MACD: 0.8016 (above signal line 0.5904), RSI: 62.79 (neutral), Bollinger Upper: $19.22 (near current price), 200D MA: $7.87 (far below)
• 20D MA: $16.09 (support near $15.90), Gamma: 0.112–0.1315 (high sensitivity)

QBTS’s technicals scream of a short-term breakout. The stock is trading just below its 52-week high with strong momentum (MACD histogram at 0.2111) and moderate RSI. Key resistance at $19.22 (Bollinger Upper) and $19.50 (intraday high) could trigger a retest of $20.56. For aggressive bulls, QBTS20250801C19 (strike $19, delta 0.55) offers 13.28% leverage with high gamma (0.115159) and moderate IV (108.42%). For hedgers, QBTS20250801P19.5 (strike $19.5, delta -0.5087) provides 12.93% leverage and strong liquidity (turnover $112,634).

QBTS20250801C19 (Call, $19 strike, 8/1 expiry):
• IV 108.42% (high volatility)
• Delta 0.55 (moderate directional bias)
• Gamma 0.115 (price-sensitive)
• Turnover $116,628 (liquid)
• Payoff: $1.625 per $5% move above $19.35
• Ideal for a continuation of the current bullish momentum.

QBTS20250801P19.5 (Put, $19.5 strike, 8/1 expiry):
• IV 102.05% (reasonable)
• Delta -0.5087 (strong put bias)
• Gamma 0.1234 (price-responsive)
• Turnover $112,634 (high liquidity)
• Payoff: $0.825 per $5% drop below $19.50
• Serves as a hedge against a pullback to key support levels.

If $19.22 breaks, QBTS20250801C19 offers explosive upside. Aggressive bulls should consider a strangle setup with QBTS20250801C19 and QBTS20250801P19.5 for a volatility play.

Backtest D-Wave Quantum Stock Performance
The backtest of QBTS's performance after a 10% intraday surge shows favorable results, with the 3-Day win rate at 47.88%, the 10-Day win rate at 49.89%, and the 30-Day win rate at 52.78%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 20.63% over 30 days, indicating that QBTS tends to perform well in the short to medium term following a significant intraday increase.

QBTS at a Crossroads: Ride the Wave or Secure the Exit?
QBTS’s 10.03% surge reflects a stock caught between speculative fervor and genuine sector optimism. While the stock’s technicals and options liquidity suggest a bullish continuation, its fundamentals (negative EBIT, high price-to-sales) demand caution. The sector leader IONQ (+1.66%) hints at broader quantum computing momentum, but QBTS’s move is largely decoupled from traditional semiconductors. Investors should monitor the $19.22 Bollinger Upper and $19.50 intraday high for directional clues. For now, the market is betting big on the quantum narrative—will the science keep up, or is this a classic case of hype over substance?