Waste Connections (WCN) Up 6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Waste Connections (WCN). Shares have added about 6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Waste Connections due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Waste Connections Beats on Q4 Earnings

Waste Connections' fourth-quarter 2025 earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a slight margin and increased 11.2% year over year. The top line met the consensus estimate and grew 5% year over year.

WCN’s Q4 Segmental Information

The company logged $1.7 billion in revenues from the Solid Waste Collection segment, which gained 5.8% year over year. For the Solid Waste Disposal and Transfer segment, revenues increased 5.4% from the year-ago quarter to $757.1 million. These segments improved on the back of solid core pricing.

The Solid Waste Recycling segment witnessed a 14.3% year-over-year decline in revenues. The figure came in at $51.2 million. For the E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal segment, $171.1 million in revenues was recorded, marking a 16.9% year-over-year hike. The Intermodal and Other segment recorded $42.3 million in revenues, sliding 7.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Waste Connections’ Operating Results

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter was $731.9 million, sinking 8% from the year-ago quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 32.4%, declining 110 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2024.

The company recorded an operating loss of $199.1 million against an operating income of $420.8 million in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Waste Connections exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $46 million, down from $117.6 million in the preceding quarter. The long-term portion of debt and notes payable stood at $8.8 billion compared with $8 billion in the third quarter of 2025.

In the reported quarter, WCN generated $556.9 million in cash from operating activities. The adjusted free cash flow was $175.6 million. Capital expenditure totaled $261.1 million. The company paid out $89.9 million in dividends during the quarter.

WCN’s FY26 Outlook

For 2026, the company expected revenues of $9.9-$9.95 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be $3.3-$3.325 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Waste Connections has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock has a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Waste Connections has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Waste Connections belongs to the Zacks Waste Removal Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Waste Management (WM), has gained 3.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.

Waste Management reported revenues of $6.31 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.1%. EPS of $1.93 for the same period compares with $1.70 a year ago.

Waste Management is expected to post earnings of $1.76 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +5.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Waste Management. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN): Free Stock Analysis Report

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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