Warby Parker: ¿Es el hiperdiseño de las lentes inteligentes justificado o es hora de aprovechar las ganancias?

Warby Parker (NYSE: EYE) has long been a darling of the direct-to-consumer (DTC) eyewear market, but its recent pivot into AI-powered smart glasses has reignited investor speculation. With a 2025 enterprise value (EV) of $2.8 billion and a trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $851 million, the company trades at a 3.3x EV/Revenue multiple and a staggering 31.9x EV/EBITDA multiple. These valuations, while reflecting optimism about its AI glasses partnership with Google, raise critical questions: Is the hype justified by the fundamentals, or is the market overestimating the execution potential of a product not yet launched?

Valuation Metrics: A Tale of Two Narratives

Warby Parker's financials show modest progress. Its 2025 TTM revenue of $851 million represents a 13% growth projection for 2025, with EBITDA turning positive at $15.8 million after years of losses. However, the company's EV/EBITDA multiple of 31.9x dwarfs industry benchmarks. For context, traditional eyewear giants like Luxottica trade at 8–10x EBITDA, while tech-driven wearables (e.g., Apple's Vision Pro) command multiples closer to 15–20x according to market analysis. This disconnect suggests the market is pricing in a future where Warby Parker's AI glasses dominate the smart eyewear sector-a narrative that hinges on execution.

The AI Glasses Narrative: A Strategic Bet

Warby Parker's collaboration with Google to develop AI-powered glasses is its most audacious move yet. The partnership, which includes up to $150 million in funding from Google (split between product development and equity investment), aims to launch a product integrating Google's Android XR platform and Gemini AI model by 2026. These glasses promise features like real-time translation, AR navigation, and hands-free communication, targeting both prescription and non-prescription users.

The market has responded enthusiastically. Following the partnership's announcement in December 2025, Warby Parker's stock surged 3.36%, and bullish options trading activity spiked. Analysts have raised the 12-month price target to $23.45, reflecting confidence in the product's potential to redefine the eyewear category. However, this optimism must be tempered with scrutiny.

Execution Risks: The Unseen Hurdles

1. Technical and Regulatory Challenges: Developing all-day-wear smart glasses is fraught with complexity. Unlike Meta's Ray-Ban or Apple's Vision Pro, which rely on bulky designs, Warby Parker's glasses must maintain aesthetic appeal while integrating advanced hardware and software. Delays in achieving this balance could erode investor patience. Additionally, global AI regulations (e.g., the EU AI Act) may impose compliance costs or restrict functionality according to regulatory experts.

2. Market Adoption Uncertainty: While Warby Parker projects 13% revenue growth in 2025, the success of its AI glasses depends on consumer demand for tech-integrated fashion. Competitors like EssilorLuxottica and Zenni Optical are also innovating, and early adopters may be hesitant to replace established products like AirPods.

1. Valuation Volatility: The AI sector is already showing signs of a bubble. Wall Street analysts warn that overinflated expectations for AI-driven growth could collapse if products fail to meet benchmarks. Warby Parker's EV/EBITDA multiple of 31.9x implies EBITDA must grow 10x by 2027 to justify the current valuation-a scenario contingent on the AI glasses becoming a mass-market hit.

Competitive Landscape: A Crowded Arena

Warby Parker's AI glasses face stiff competition. Meta's Ray-Ban Meta Glasses and Apple's Vision Pro are already in development, leveraging their ecosystems to capture early adopters. EssilorLuxottica, with its luxury brands (e.g., Gucci, Prada), is also exploring AR-integrated eyewear. While Warby Parker's partnership with Google offers a unique edge-access to Gemini AI and Android XR-its ability to differentiate remains unproven.

Conclusion: Hype vs. Reality

Warby Parker's AI glasses represent a high-stakes gamble. The partnership with Google is undeniably transformative, but the company's valuation assumes flawless execution: timely product launches, regulatory compliance, and rapid market adoption. Given the technical hurdles and competitive pressures, this scenario is far from guaranteed.

For investors, the key question is whether the current valuation reflects realistic expectations or speculative fervor. If the AI glasses fail to deliver on their promise, the 31.9x EV/EBITDA multiple could become a liability. Conversely, a successful launch could cement Warby Parker's position as a leader in smart eyewear. Until then, caution is warranted. The hype is justified if the execution follows-but history shows that growth narratives often collapse under the weight of their own expectations.