Walrus/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-06

Summary
• Walrus/USDC trades lower over 24 hours, closing below key intraday high.
• Volume peaks during early evening ET with a bearish reversal pattern.
• RSI and MACD show bearish divergence as price tests support near 0.2185.

Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) opened at 0.2193 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2243 before closing at 0.2202 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded as low as 0.2160 and saw a total volume of 5,282,384.3 and notional turnover of $1,146,099.5 in the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish reversal formation after reaching a 24-hour high of 0.2243, with a subsequent pullback forming a potential bearish engulfing pattern. Key support appears at 0.2185, which was tested multiple times throughout the day, while resistance is likely to remain near the 0.2219–0.2224 range.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearishly aligned, with price failing to close above the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA structure shows a flat to bearish trend, with price below all three moving averages, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish after crossing below the signal line mid-day, with a negative histogram showing diverging momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory near 30 at the end of the session, potentially hinting at a short-term bounce but lacking a strong bullish signal.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within a wide Bollinger Band range, with volatility expanding during the early evening session. The lower band acted as a dynamic support near 0.2185–0.2190, while the mid-band crossed bearish, confirming downward bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 626,989.6 during the 8:30 AM ET candle, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.2157 to 0.2181. Notional turnover spiked during this candle as well, confirming the bearish breakdown. Divergence was observed between late-day price consolidation and declining volume, suggesting a possible near-term bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.2203 aligned with key support, which held for most of the session. The 61.8% retracement at 0.2177 acted as a stronger support, which saw price bounce during the early morning hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential profitability from the observed bearish reversal and divergence in momentum indicators, a backtest strategy could be constructed around inverted-hammer candlestick patterns. The hypothesis would involve entering short positions after the formation of a valid inverted hammer pattern, holding for three days, and exiting at the close of the third day or at stop-loss levels aligned with key Fibonacci retracements or Bollinger Band breakouts. The backtest could be run on Walrus/USDC or similar tickers from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-06 to assess the effectiveness of this pattern-based approach.