Walrus/USDC Market Overview (2025-10-13)

• Walrus/USDC declined from 0.2499 to 0.2275 with a bearish consolidation in the last 15 hours.
• Momentum accelerated during the sharp 24-hour drop, indicating bearish exhaustion near 0.2262.
• Volatility expanded during the downward move, with volume surging near key breakdown levels.
• Price currently tests support at 0.2340–0.2360, suggesting potential for short-term rebound or further breakdown.
• A bullish reversal could form near 0.2347 if buying pressure re-accumulates above 0.2323.

The Walrus/USDC pair (WALUSDC) opened at 0.2417 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2509 before closing at 0.2295 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 20,970,283.6 with a notional turnover of $5,198,250.2. Price action displayed a strong bearish bias after forming a descending wedge pattern on the 15-minute chart, culminating in a breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price developed a clear descending wedge from 0.2417 to 0.2509, followed by a breakdown below 0.2351 and 0.2341. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2365–0.2262, confirming the breakdown. A potential support zone between 0.2340 and 0.2360 is now in play, with a possible bullish engulfing or hammer pattern forming near 0.2347 if buyers step in. A breakdown below 0.2340 may trigger further declines toward 0.2262 or even 0.2255.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly at 0.2435 and 0.2418, supporting the bearish bias. On a broader scale, the 50D/100D/200D moving averages are not available for this time frame, but the intraday bearish crossover suggests continued downward pressure. Price remains well below the 20SMA for most of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and declined sharply during the bearish breakdown, confirming the strength of the move lower. RSI accelerated toward 25–30, indicating oversold conditions near 0.2262. This could suggest a potential bounce, but with the breakdown already in place, a false reversal is likely unless buyers decisively push price above 0.2347.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the breakdown, with price falling well below the 20-period Bollinger Band floor. A contraction occurred earlier in the day at 0.2420–0.2447 before the sharp move down. Price is now trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation. A breakout above the upper band near 0.2385 would suggest a reversal, but this remains unlikely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown, with the 15-minute candle ending at 0.2275 registering 507,735.5 in volume. This confirms strong bearish conviction. Turnover also spiked during the move from 0.2365 to 0.2262, with several high-volume candles confirming the breakdown. A divergence between volume and price could suggest a reversal, but no such pattern is evident yet.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.2499–0.2262 move, key levels include 0.2398 (23.6%), 0.2368 (38.2%), and 0.2347 (50%). Price is currently testing the 50% level at 0.2347, which could act as a pivot point. A retest of 0.2368 and 0.2398 could signal a rebound, but a breakdown below 0.2262 may extend the Fibonacci sequence toward 0.2220.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine a backtesting strategy, access to RSI data is required. Given the sharp bearish momentum observed in this 24-hour period, a potential strategy could involve a short bias when RSI drops below 30 and volume spikes above the 20-period average. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.2347–0.2368 Fibonacci levels. However, due to the lack of RSI data for WALUSDC, it is recommended to confirm the exact ticker symbol (e.g., WAL/USDC or exchange-specific format) to ensure accurate indicator calculations.