Walmart (WMT) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trading Setups for Q3 Earnings Optimism

• Walmart’s stock trades at $106.17, down 0.65% from its previous close, but sits above its 30-day moving average of $103.97.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $110 and $107, with a put/call ratio of 0.817 (favoring calls) for open interest.
• Recent news highlights RFID partnerships, AI-driven retail upgrades, and raised Q3 earnings guidance—fueling long-term optimism.

Here’s the core insight: WMT’s options activity and technicals point to a strong bullish bias, with call options dominating at key strike levels and the stock perched above critical moving averages. While short-term volatility is possible, the data leans toward an upside breakout scenario. Let’s break it down.

Bullish Sentiment in Options: Calls Dominate at $110 and $107

The options market is clearly leaning bullish. For Friday’s expiration, the top OTM call options are clustered at $107–$111, with the $110 strike leading at 5,766 open interest. Next Friday’s chain amplifies this trend, with the $110 call at 8,519 open interest—the highest of any strike. This suggests institutional and retail investors are hedging or speculating on a price push above $110 before Q3 earnings.

Conversely, put open interest is weaker. The top OTM puts for Friday are at $106 and $104, with the $106 strike at 4,814 open interest. Next Friday’s puts are even more bearish, with the $95 strike at 6,819 open interest—a potential floor if the stock faces a sharp correction. But given the current put/call ratio (0.817), the market isn’t pricing in a significant downside risk.

Block trading data shows no major whale moves, so this is a crowd-sourced bullish setup. The risk? If Walmart fails to break above $110, the heavy call open interest could trigger a short-term profit-taking selloff. But the broader technicals—like the RSI at 64.58 and MACD above its signal line—still favor a rebound.

News Flow: RFID, AI, and Earnings Guidance Fuel Long-Term Optimism

Walmart’s recent news aligns with the bullish options narrative. The RFID partnership with Avery Dennison to reduce food waste and the OpenAI collaboration for AI-driven shopping are tangible growth catalysts. These moves aren’t just PR—they’re operational upgrades that could boost margins and investor confidence.

The raised Q3 earnings guidance ($0.58–$0.60/share) also matters. Analysts from RBC and Telsey have upgraded price targets to $106–$118, and the stock’s 5.6% gain above its 50-day moving average reflects this optimism. However, CEO Doug McMillon’s warning about tariff-driven margin pressures adds a layer of caution. The market is betting Walmart can offset these costs through efficiency gains, but a miss on Q3 guidance could trigger a pullback.

Actionable Trading Setups: Calls at $110 and Stock Entry Near $103

For options traders: Buy the $110 call options expiring Friday (OI: 5,766) and next Friday (OI: 8,519). These strikes are the most liquid and align with the stock’s 30-day resistance zone (103.02–103.17). If WMT closes above $110 by Friday, the $110 call could see a sharp premium jump. For a longer play, the next Friday $110 call offers leverage if the stock trends higher into Q3.

For stock traders: Consider entry near $103.01 if support holds. The 30-day support range (103.02–103.17) is a critical level. A break below this would trigger a test of the 200-day moving average at $97.06. If the stock holds, target a move toward the Bollinger upper band at $109.34. A stop-loss below $103.01 would protect against a breakdown.

Bearish traders could sell the $106 put options expiring Friday (OI: 4,814) if the stock dips to $104–$105. This aligns with the 30-day support zone and could profit from a rebound. But given the bullish technicals, this is a riskier play.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Earnings Risks

The data tells a clear story: WMT is in a short- and long-term bullish trend, supported by options activity, technical indicators, and strategic news. The key risks are a Q3 earnings miss or a sharper-than-expected tariff impact. But for now, the market is pricing in resilience. If you’re trading this, focus on the $110 call strikes and the $103.01 support level. The next few weeks could be a make-or-break period for Walmart’s stock—and the options market is already betting on the upside.