Walmart (WMT) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Q4

• WMT’s current price of $102.82 sits just above its 30-day support zone (103.02–103.17) but below its 200-day moving average (97.31).
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at the $110 strike (12,999 contracts) and put open interest at $95 (6,931 contracts) for Friday expiration, with a put/call ratio of 0.87 favoring bullish sentiment.
• Recent news highlights Walmart’s strategic partnerships in delivery, healthcare, and sustainability—key drivers for long-term growth but with near-term risks like consumer spending shifts.

Here’s the core insight: WMT’s options market is pricing in a strong bullish bias, with heavy call buying at $110 and a technical setup that suggests a potential breakout above key resistance. The stock’s short-term bearish momentum clashes with its long-term bullish fundamentals, creating a high-probability trade for those who can navigate the tightrope between optimism and caution.

The $110 Call Wall and the $95 Put Floor: What Options Activity Reveals

Let’s start with the numbers. For Friday expiration, the $110 call option has 12,999 open contracts—the highest on the chain. That’s not just noise; it’s a signal. Big money is positioning for a sharp rally, likely tied to Walmart’s broader e-commerce and healthcare partnerships. Meanwhile, the $95 put option has 6,931 open contracts, acting as a floor for downside protection. The put/call ratio of 0.87 (put open interest vs. call open interest) confirms that bullish bets dominate.

But here’s the catch: WMT’s price is currently below its 200-day moving average and trading near the lower Bollinger Band (99.72). If the stock fails to break above 103.17 (30-day resistance), the $95 puts could see action. The lack of block trades (no large institutional orders) means this is retail and institutional retail-driven, which can be volatile. Think of it like a tug-of-war—bulls are pulling hard, but bears have a firm grip on the lower end.

News Flow: Strategic Wins vs. Consumer Risks

Walmart’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The partnership with Skip for Canadian deliveries and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound distribution are clear positives, expanding its logistics and healthcare footprints. Analysts love these moves—they position Walmart as a digital and healthcare retail leader. But the $2 billion loss risk from shifting consumer behavior is a red flag. If shoppers migrate to niche competitors or cut discretionary spending, WMT’s margins could squeeze.

The key here is perception. Retail investors often overreact to headlines. The $110 call wall might reflect optimism about Walmart’s partnerships, but the $95 puts hint at fears about the $2 billion risk. If the stock dips toward 99.72 (lower Bollinger Band), the puts could spark a rebound. However, the broader news flow—like Ranpak’s $1 billion eco-packaging deal—suggests Walmart’s long-term story remains intact.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Precision Entries

For options traders: Buy the WMT 110 Call (Friday expiration) if WMT closes above $103.17 today. The RSI at 51.9 is neutral, but a break above resistance could trigger a rally toward the upper Bollinger Band ($109.51). Target a 5–7% gain if WMT hits $107. The risk? If it fails to hold 103.02, exit the call to avoid decay.

For downside protection: Buy the WMT 95 Put (Friday expiration) as insurance. With the stock near its 200-day MA, a pullback to 99.72 could see the put gain value. This is a conservative play, ideal for hedging a long stock position.

Stock traders: Consider entry near $103.02 if WMT holds its 30-day support. Set a stop-loss below 99.72 (lower Bollinger Band) and target 109.51 (upper Bollinger Band) for a 6.6% move. Alternatively, use the $101.96 intraday low as a secondary entry if the stock retraces.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Downside Risks

WMT’s options and technicals tell a story of cautious optimism. The $110 call wall and bullish news flow suggest a rally is possible, but the stock’s proximity to its 200-day MA and lower Bollinger Band means volatility is inevitable. The next 72 hours will be critical—WMT needs to close above 103.17 to validate the bullish case. If it fails, the $95 puts and 97.04 (200-day support) become key watchpoints.

In the end, this is a stock at a crossroads. The options market is pricing in a breakout, but the fundamentals aren’t a free pass. For traders, the sweet spot lies in disciplined entries, tight stops, and a clear exit plan. Walmart’s story isn’t over—it’s just getting interesting.