Walmart Earnings: Analysts Bullish Ahead of Q4 Report

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday morning, with analysts expecting rising sales and profits from the country's biggest retailer. The retail giant is expected to report $180.2 billion in revenue for the quarter, up nearly 4% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings per share of $0.64, up 7% from the year-ago quarter. If Walmart reports in line with analyst estimates, it could mark the first time that Walmart's quarterly revenue is lower than that of Amazon (AMZN), which reported $187.8 billion earlier this month.

Analysts are generally bullish on Walmart stock, with 20 "buy" ratings among the 21 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, along with one "hold." However, the retailer has an average price target of $107.76, less than 4% above Friday's close, suggesting that analysts may be waiting to see Walmart's outlook for 2025 after an 85% jump over the past 12 months. This indicates that analysts are cautiously optimistic about Walmart's earnings performance and future growth prospects, but are also aware of the potential risks and uncertainties in the market.

A number of analysts have lifted their price targets for Walmart stock in the weeks leading up to earnings, citing expectations that Walmart will continue gaining market share and topping analysts' estimates. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank analysts each recently lifted their price target to $115, while analysts from JPMorgan and Bank of America lifted their targets to $112 and $120, respectively. Analysts from Melius Research wrote late last month that they see Walmart as able to "meaningfully beat" fourth-quarter estimates, and said that their "primary concern" is high expectations from the market. Melius and Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect Walmart will stick to its past trend of being conservative in its initial projections for fiscal 2026, but said they expect the retail giant's share price gains to continue this year.

"Against a backdrop of increased uncertainty owing to tariff and deportation policies, the market is rotating into quality and scale, seeking out share gainers that are in a position to mitigate these potential policy headwinds via bargaining power and superior, more highly automated supply chains," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote on Thursday.

Walmart shares finished Friday down about 1%, retreating from Thursday's record close of $105.05. However, the stock has gained 85% over the past 12 months, reflecting investors' confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging retail environment and maintain its market leadership.