La perspectiva de Walmart para el año 2026: ¿Ya está incluida en los precios la idea del “consumidor resiliente”?

Bernstein's bullish case for Walmart hinges on a specific macro bet. On January 5, the firm raised its price target to $129 from $122 and maintained an Outperform rating. Its core expectation is that middle- to high-income consumers will be in a stronger position in 2026. This view is supported by Bernstein's analysis that incremental tax refunds tied to the OBBBA are likely to skew toward middle- and high-income groups.

This creates a clear expectation gap. Bernstein's thesis contrasts with a more challenging reality for lower-income shoppers, where inflation remains elevated, and the labor market is starting to soften, continuing to pressure their real spending power. The firm's outlook assumes the consumer resilience story is shifting upward, benefiting Walmart's core customer base.

The central question now is whether this expectation is already priced in. Walmart's stock has rallied more than 23% over the past year, a move that reflects investors' own optimism about the company's cost management and operational discipline through a tough period. Bernstein's new target suggests the firm sees further upside, but it also means the market is already betting on a stronger consumer. The setup is now a game of expectations: will the macro tailwinds Bernstein forecasts be enough to drive the stock higher, or has the "resilient consumer" thesis already been fully bought?

Walmart's Q4 Performance: Beat and Raise, or Guidance Reset?

Walmart's fourth-quarter results delivered a clear beat on execution. Revenue grew 4.1%, but operating income grew even faster at 8.3%. This divergence, driven by higher gross margins and stronger membership income, showed the company's cost discipline translating directly to the bottom line. The eCommerce business also continued its strong run, up 16% globally. On paper, this was a textbook "beat and raise" quarter.

Yet the forward guidance tells a different story. For the full fiscal year 2026, Walmart is projecting net sales growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted operating income growth in constant currency of 3.5% to 5.5%. This outlook includes a 150 basis point headwind from the VIZIO acquisition and the normalizing effect of lapping a leap year. The key question is whether this cautious guidebook reflects a reset in expectations or simply a realistic path after a strong quarter.

The gap between the strong past and the measured future is the central tension. The company is guiding for operating income growth that is roughly in line with its sales growth projection, suggesting minimal margin expansion ahead. This is a far cry from the acceleration seen in Q4. The VIZIO headwind is a specific, quantifiable pressure, but it also serves as a signal. It suggests management is factoring in integration costs and the dilutive impact of a recent, large acquisition. In the context of Bernstein's bullish macro thesis, this guidance could be seen as a prudent, sandbagged view-setting a lower bar to ensure the company can hit it, and potentially exceed it, as the consumer story plays out.

The bottom line is that the market has already priced in a resilient consumer and strong execution. Walmart's stock has rallied significantly over the past year. The new guidance, therefore, needs to be viewed not as a disappointment, but as a reality check. It sets a floor, not a ceiling. The expectation gap now is whether the macro tailwinds Bernstein forecasts can push the company above this guided range, or if the cautious outlook is the new normal.

The Expectation Gap: Resilience vs. Reality in Consumer Spending

The market's bullish bet on Walmart hinges on a single, powerful narrative: the consumer is resilient. Yet the data reveals a more nuanced and potentially fragile picture. The competing stories are clear. On one side, the Bank of America Institute notes that spending, wages and income continue to grow for both higher and lower-income groups. This is the "resilient" thesis. On the other, the reality is that the top third of higher-income households drive more than half of consumer spending. This is the structural vulnerability.

Recent sentiment data shows this split in action. The University of Michigan's preliminary January reading rose to 54, beating expectations. But that figure remains significantly below the 71.7 reading a year ago. More telling is the divergence within the data: improvements in January were seen among lower-income consumers, while sentiment fell for those with higher incomes. This is a critical signal. It suggests the perceived improvement is being driven by the lower end, while the wealthier segment-the primary engine of spending-is pulling back. The expectation gap here is between the headline number and the underlying health of the consumer base.

A key pressure point for real spending power is inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve's December survey shows median inflation expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon. This uptick, even if modest, directly chews into disposable income. It means households are pricing in higher costs ahead, which can lead to a pullback in discretionary purchases-exactly the category where Walmart's higher-income shoppers spend most.

So, which segment's strength is more likely to drive Walmart's 2026 results? The answer leans heavily toward the higher-income group. Their spending power is the dominant force, and their recent decline in sentiment is a red flag. The market has priced in a resilient consumer, but it has not priced in a consumer whose confidence is fracturing at the top. The current setup suggests the "resilient consumer" thesis is already in the stock price, but the data hints that the foundation for that resilience may be weakening. The expectation gap is now between a headline narrative of broad-based strength and a reality of a spending engine that is becoming more dependent on a shrinking, and now anxious, segment.

Valuation and Catalysts: What's Left to Price?

Walmart's stock is up more than 23% over the past year, a move that has already priced in a significant portion of the bullish narrative. The shares now trade above the analyst mean price target of $123.11, reflecting investors' confidence in the company's operational discipline and its ability to navigate cost pressures. Bernstein's recent price target hike to $129 suggests the firm sees further upside, but it also underscores that the market is already betting on a stronger consumer. The valuation now sits at a premium to the consensus, meaning any disappointment in execution or a shift in the consumer story could quickly reverse gains.

The key near-term catalyst is the upcoming first-quarter earnings report. This release will test the company's ability to meet its full-year guidance for net sales growth of 3% to 4%. Given that the company is guiding for operating income growth that roughly matches sales growth, the focus will be on whether margins can hold steady or expand. The report will provide the first real data point on the consumer split that Bernstein's thesis depends on. Evidence of higher-income households driving growth will be critical to validating the macro bet. Conversely, if growth remains concentrated in lower-income segments, it could signal the resilience story is more fragile than priced in.

What remains to be priced in is the gap between Bernstein's optimistic macro view and the current, mixed consumer reality. The market has bought the "resilient consumer" narrative, but the data shows sentiment is fracturing at the top. For the stock to move meaningfully higher from here, the company must not only meet its cautious guide but also demonstrate that the consumer tailwinds Bernstein forecasts are materializing in its sales and margins. Until then, the expectation gap is wide. The valuation is high, the guidance is measured, and the catalyst is a single quarter's report that must prove the thesis.