Wall Street Trains Its Focus on Nvidia as AI Sentiment Splits Ahead of Earnings

Stocks slipped at the opening bell Monday as Wall Street awaited Nvidia’s earnings later in the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 118 points (0.25%) to roughly 47,029, the S&P 500 off 26 points (0.38%) at about 6,708, and the Nasdaq Composite lower by roughly 112 points (0.49%) near 22,789. The Russell 2000 edged down 1 point (0.42%) to about 236, while commodities were mixed: gold fell $19.60 to $4,074.60, crude oil rose $0.09 to $60.04, and Bitcoin slipped 1.26% to $94,131.22.

Wall Street Trains Its Focus on Nvidia

Anticipation is intense. Angelo Zino, senior vice president and equity analyst at CFRA Research, expects another blockbuster quarter from the chipmaker when it reports on Wednesday. According to his earnings preview, Zino projects Nvidia’s October-quarter revenue “at least $1 billion above the $54.8 billion consensus” along with EPS of $1.29, noting that such results would represent high-50s percentage growth year over year and mark the fastest expansion since early 2024. Zino emphasized the strength of the company’s data-center division, expected to post $49–$50 billion in revenue, and cited ongoing enthusiasm for the company’s Blackwell architecture as a catalyst for both gross-margin expansion and forward guidance. He reiterated his Strong Buy rating and $270 price target.

The optimism is shared at Wedbush, where respected tech analyst Daniel Ives argues that Nvidia remains the indispensable engine of the AI economy. “This Wednesday after the bell, we will get earnings and guidance from the Godfather of AI, Jensen, and Nvidia, and will be able to hear a pin drop on Street trading desks,” wrote Ives, calling Nvidia a “foundational piece of this AI Revolution.” He added that the firm expects Nvidia to “handily exceed Street estimates given the plethora of positive data points” from supply-chain checks and cloud-hyperscaler capital spending. Ives also highlighted the structural impact of Washington’s restrictions on high-end chips to China, describing the policy environment as a “huge void” still shaping global demand.

The debate over whether Nvidia’s ascent reflects the early innings of a long-term technological transformation or a speculative mania intensified late last week after Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire Nvidia stake. According to a summary of the fund’s latest 13F filing, Thiel Macro LLC exited roughly 537,742 shares, a position that would have been worth around $100 million at the end of September. The sale added fuel to ongoing worries about the durability of AI-driven valuations.

Skepticism is spreading beyond markets. CBS News quoted London Business School economist Rebecca Homkes, who cautioned, “The stock market is a giant bet on AI right now. It's really 10 companies that are driving all of it.” The combined market cap of the so-called “Magnificent 7” now accounts for a record 37% of the S&P 500, according to Morningstar, raising concerns about market concentration.

Even so, Ives argues that fears of an AI bubble are misplaced, insisting the spending cycle is still “in the Top of the 3rd inning.” His team estimates that every $1 invested in Nvidia hardware generates an $8–$10 multiplier across the broader tech ecosystem—a dynamic that underpins Wedbush’s forecast for Big Tech capex to exceed $550 billion in 2026.

For markets, Wednesday’s results could serve as a pivotal moment. With investors divided between enthusiasm and caution, Nvidia’s earnings may determine whether AI maintains its position as the market’s dominant narrative or whether growing concerns about concentration and valuation take center stage.