Waldencast's 2024 Earnings: A Missed EPS Target

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! We're diving into the earnings report of Waldencast Acquisition Corp (WALD) for the fourth quarter of 2024, and it's a rollercoaster ride of numbers and surprises. Let's break it down!



The Good News: Revenue Surge!

Waldencast reported a revenue of $72.08 million for Q4, smashing the forecast of $70.77 million. That's a 1.86% positive surprise, folks! The company's full-year net revenue reached $273.9 million, a whopping 27.5% increase from the previous year. This is growth, growth, growth!

The Bad News: EPS Miss!

But here's where it gets tricky. Waldencast's EPS came in at -$0.06, missing the expected -$0.0524. Now, this is a minor miss, but in the world of earnings season, every cent counts. The stock price dropped by 3.18% in after-hours trading, closing at $3.305. Ouch!

The Market Reaction: Why the Drop?

You might be wondering, "Why the decline, given the revenue beat?" Well, investors are fickle creatures. They focus on EPS as a key indicator of profitability. The slight miss in EPS, despite the revenue beat, likely led to the stock's decline. Plus, the stock is trading near its 52-week low of $2.405 and significantly below its high of $7.54, indicating broader investor concerns.

The Company's Performance: Strong Operational Efficiency

Now, let's talk about the company's performance. Waldencast demonstrated robust growth in 2024, with an adjusted gross profit of $203.6 million, marking a 35.3% year-over-year increase. Its adjusted EBITDA rose by 65.1% to $40.3 million, reflecting strong operational efficiency and margin expansion. The company's adjusted gross profit margin was 74.3%, up 530 basis points year-over-year, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.7%, up 350 basis points year-over-year. These improvements indicate that Waldencast has been effective in managing its costs and improving operational efficiency.

The Outlook: Mid-Teens Net Revenue Growth

Waldencast anticipates mid-teens net revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to the mid-to-high teens for 2025. The company expects Q1 to be relatively flat due to base effects and inventory adjustments but projects sequential revenue acceleration throughout the year. This is a company on the move, folks!

The Risks: Supply Chain Disruptions and Market Saturation

But remember, every stock has its risks. Supply chain disruptions could impact product availability and cost. Market saturation in the beauty sector may limit growth potential. Economic downturns could affect consumer spending on premium products. Competitive pressures from established brands in the beauty industry. Dependence on retail partners for distribution and sales growth. These are all factors to consider.

The Bottom Line: Buy or Sell?

So, should you buy or sell WALD stock? Well, according to 2 Wall Street analysts, the consensus is to Strong Buy WALD stock. Out of 2 analysts, 1 (50%) are recommending WALD as a Strong Buy, 1 (50%) are recommending WALD as a Buy, 0 (0%) are recommending WALD as a Hold, 0 (0%) are recommending WALD as a Sell, and 0 (0%) are recommending WALD as a Strong Sell. The average WALD price target is $6.25, with the highest WALD stock price forecast at $6.50 and the lowest WALD stock price forecast at $6.00. On average, Wall Street analysts predict that Waldencast's share price could reach $6.25 by Aug 29, 2025. The average Waldencast stock price prediction forecasts a potential upside of 107.64%.



So, there you have it, folks! Waldencast's 2024 earnings report is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. But one thing is for sure: this company is on the move, and it's a stock to watch!