Volato Group (SOAR) Plummets 21%: What’s Fueling the Selloff?

Summary
• Volato Group (SOAR) trades at $0.626, down 20.76% intraday, breaking below its 52-week low of $0.618.
• Intraday range spans $0.62–$0.749, with turnover surging to 1.48M shares.
• Technical indicators signal oversold conditions (RSI: 26.8) and bearish momentum (MACD: -0.148).

Volato Group’s stock has imploded in late trading, driven by a confluence of technical exhaustion and sector-wide jitters. The plunge follows a string of strategic updates—including a merger with M2i Global and critical mineral partnerships—but lacks a direct catalyst. Traders are now parsing whether this is a short-term panic or a structural breakdown.

Technical Exhaustion and Sector Weakness
The selloff reflects a technical breakdown rather than a fundamental trigger. SOAR’s price has collapsed below its 200-day moving average ($1.7187) and Bollinger Bands’ lower boundary ($0.7667), signaling extreme bearish momentum. The RSI at 26.8 indicates oversold territory, but the 30-day and 100-day averages ($1.1493 and $1.6036) remain far above current levels, suggesting a prolonged downtrend. While the company’s recent news—such as a merger with M2i Global and critical mineral partnerships—hints at long-term potential, the immediate selloff appears driven by profit-taking and short-term volatility.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Struggles as SOAR Leads the Plunge
The Aerospace & Defense sector, led by Boeing (BA), has seen mixed performance. Boeing’s intraday decline of 0.6% pales in comparison to SOAR’s 21% drop, highlighting SOAR’s extreme volatility. While Boeing’s selloff aligns with broader market jitters over defense budgets and supply chain risks, SOAR’s collapse appears disconnected from sector trends. The lack of leveraged ETFs tied to SOAR further isolates its move, suggesting a stock-specific event rather than a sector-wide correction.

Navigating the Bearish Play: ETFs and Technicals
• 200-day average: $1.7187 (far above current price)
• RSI: 26.8 (oversold)
• MACD: -0.148 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $0.7667 (lower boundary) vs. $0.626 (current price)

SOAR’s technical profile screams of a short-term oversold rebound but a long-term bearish trend. Key support levels at $0.618 (52-week low) and $0.50 (psychological floor) are critical. A break below $0.618 could trigger a test of $0.50, while a rebound above $0.7667 might attract bargain hunters. However, the absence of leveraged ETFs and a void in options liquidity (no contracts listed) limit actionable strategies. Traders should focus on tight stop-loss orders and avoid overexposure to a stock with a 99.73% three-year total return drawdown.

Backtest Volato Group Stock Performance
The SOAR ETF experienced a significant intraday plunge of -21% in 2022, and its performance was backtested over various time frames to assess recovery and potential returns. The backtest results show mixed outcomes, with the 3-Day win rate at 38.19%, the 10-Day win rate at 35.42%, and the 30-Day win rate at 40.97%. However, the ETF suffered a total return of -2.41% over 3 days, -5.76% over 10 days, and -12.66% over 30 days, indicating a general trend of underperformance following the initial drop.

Act Now: SOAR’s Plunge Demands Caution
Volato Group’s 21% selloff is a warning shot for investors. While technical indicators hint at a short-term bounce, the long-term bearish trend—evidenced by moving averages and Bollinger Bands—suggests further declines. The sector leader, Boeing (BA), is down 0.6%, underscoring broader market fragility. Traders should prioritize risk management: watch for a breakdown below $0.618 or a rebound above $0.7667. For now, SOAR remains a high-risk, high-volatility play with no clear path to recovery. Watch for $0.618 breakdown or regulatory reaction.