VNET Group Surges 14% on 40MW Order: Can This Data Center Play Sustain Momentum?

Summary
• VNET Group (VNET) gaps up 14.01% to $10.66, driven by a 40MW wholesale order from a major internet company
• Intraday high of $10.85 and low of $9.94 highlight volatile trading amid strong volume of 15.2 million shares
• Analysts upgrade price targets as AI-driven data center demand accelerates, but valuation metrics remain stretched

VNET Group’s stock has erupted on news of a landmark 40MW wholesale order, propelling the stock to a 14.01% intraday gain. The surge follows a strategic shift in China’s AI infrastructure landscape, with the company’s new IDC campus capturing investor attention. While technical indicators suggest momentum, the stock’s -41.16 P/E ratio and 6.005% turnover rate raise questions about sustainability.

40MW Order Ignites Data Center Expansion Optimism
VNET Group’s 14.01% surge is directly tied to a 40MW wholesale order from a major internet company for its new strategic IDC campus, announced in multiple news headlines. This order, coupled with the company’s Q1 2025 financial results showing 86.5% YoY growth in wholesale revenues, has reignited investor confidence. The order aligns with China’s AI infrastructure boom, as highlighted in sector reports noting a $569.58 billion projected colocation market by 2034. Analysts from Bank of America and Simply Wall St. have upgraded price targets, citing the order as a catalyst for capacity utilization and margin expansion.

Data Center Sector Rally Amid AI Infrastructure Surge
The data center sector is experiencing a broad rally, with Equinix (EQIX) down -1.729% as a relative underperformer. VNET’s 14.01% gain outpaces peers like CyrusOne and Digital Realty, reflecting its niche focus on China’s AI-driven demand. Sector reports highlight Oracle’s $80B cloud capex and Meta’s $65B AI expansion as tailwinds, but VNET’s 40MW order and 76.2% wholesale utilization rate position it uniquely to capitalize on China’s 10-13% revenue growth outlook.

Options Playbook: Leveraging VNET’s Volatility with Call Options
• MACD: 0.494 (bullish divergence), RSI: 62.62 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $10.50 (upper), $8.75 (middle), $7.00 (lower)
• 200-day MA: $7.42 (below current price), Kline Pattern: Short-term bearish but long-term ranging

VNET’s 14.01% surge has created a high-volatility environment, with options like VNET20251017C10 and VNET20251017C11 offering leveraged exposure. Key levels to watch: $10.85 (intraday high) and $9.94 (support). A 5% upside scenario (to $11.19) would yield:
• VNET20251017C10: Max(0, $11.19 - $10) = $1.19 gain per contract
• VNET20251017C11: Max(0, $11.19 - $11) = $0.19 gain per contract

Top Options:
• VNET20251017C10 (Call, $10 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 101.71% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 7.56% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.64 (sensitive to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0307 (rapid time decay)
- Turnover: $953,090 (liquid)
- Gamma: 0.1355 (responsive to volatility)
- Why: High IV and liquidity make it ideal for short-term bullish bets.
• VNET20251017C11 (Call, $11 strike, Oct 17 expiry):
- IV: 107.62% (extreme)
- Leverage: 10.59% (high)
- Delta: 0.503 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0317 (aggressive time decay)
- Turnover: $1,187,316 (highly liquid)
- Gamma: 0.1366 (volatility responsive)
- Why: Combines high leverage with liquidity for aggressive plays.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider VNET20251017C11 into a breakout above $10.85, while conservative traders can use VNET20251017C10 for a safer entry.

Backtest VNET Group Stock Performance
Key findings:• 19 instances of ≥ 14 % daily price spikes (close-to-close) were detected in VNET from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-24. • Over the next 1-30 trading days VNET’s average excess return versus its own price trend is small and statistically insignificant. • Win rate oscillates near 50 %, with no day achieving statistical significance at the 95 % level. • By day 30 the cumulative event return (+2.8 %) lags the stock’s unconditional return (+4.7 %) for the same windows. Interpretation: In this sample, buying VNET after a 14 % surge did not consistently generate alpha; subsequent performance is roughly random.You can review the full interactive event-study panel below.Feel free to explore the chart for day-by-day returns, win-rate curves and distribution details.

VNET’s AI-Driven Momentum: Key Levels to Watch Now
VNET’s 14.01% surge is a high-stakes bet on China’s AI infrastructure boom, but technical indicators and options data suggest caution. The stock’s 6.005% turnover rate and -41.16 P/E ratio highlight valuation risks, while the 107.62% IV on the $11 strike call underscores market uncertainty. Investors should monitor the $10.85 intraday high as a critical resistance level and the $9.94 support. With sector leader Equinix (EQIX) down -1.729%, VNET’s AI-focused narrative offers asymmetric potential, but liquidity and volatility remain key risks. Watch for a $10.85 breakout or a retest of $9.94 support.