Vistra Corp Q2 Results Boost Shares, Despite Minor EBITDA Decrease

Vistra Corp (VST) shares rose 2% after announcing strong Q2 results. Despite a minor decrease in adjusted EBITDA, the company maintained its 2025 guidance and increased its 2026 forecast. Analysts set an average target price of $188.36, implying an 8.01% downside from the current price. Vistra's stock holds an "Outperform" status with 17 brokerage recommendations and a projected GF Value of $63.74, indicating a significant downside of 68.87% from the current stock price.

Vistra Corp (VST) shares rose 2% after announcing its Q2 2025 results, which showed a slight year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITDA but maintained its 2025 guidance and increased its 2026 forecast. The company's stock holds an "Outperform" status with 17 brokerage recommendations and a projected GF Value of $63.74, indicating a significant downside of 68.87% from the current stock price [1].

Despite a minor decrease in adjusted EBITDA, Vistra reported a robust financial performance for the quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1,349 million. This was slightly below the $1,412 million recorded in the same period last year [2]. The company's year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $2,548 million represents a significant improvement over the $2,178 million reported for the first half of 2024.

Vistra's strategic growth plan includes the acquisition of approximately 2,600 MW of natural gas generation assets from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion. This acquisition aligns with the company's strategic priorities and is expected to deliver accretion to Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth in its first year [2].

The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $5,500 million and $6,100 million, and adjusted free cash flow before growth between $3,000 million and $3,600 million. Looking further ahead, Vistra increased its 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity to over $6,800 million, citing confidence from the PJM Auction clear and its comprehensive hedging program [2].

Analysts set an average target price of $188.36, implying an 8.01% downside from the current price. Despite trading down in premarket, Vistra has reaffirmed its full-year guidance and increased its 2026 earnings outlook, signaling confidence in its long-term growth strategy.

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3048509/vistra-corp-vst-q2-2025-earnings-call-highlights-strong-financial-performance-and-strategic-investments
[2] https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/vistra-energy-q2-2025-slides-135b-ebitda-announces-19b-gas-asset-acquisition-93CH-4176323