Visa Plunges 5.48% as Bearish Signals Converge at Key 200-Day MA Support

Candlestick Theory
Visa's recent two-day decline of 5.48% culminated in a decisive bearish candle on June 13, closing near the session low of $345 after testing resistance at $363.01. This reinforces $345 as immediate support, while the previous swing high of $374.17 (June 12) establishes near-term resistance. The formation of two consecutive bearish candles with increasing volume signals strong selling pressure, suggesting vulnerability below $345. Notably, the absence of reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing candles indicates sustained downward momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) crossing below the 100-day MA in late May confirmed a bearish medium-term trend shift. Currently, Visa trades below all key MAs—50-day ($362), 100-day ($358), and 200-day ($342)—reflecting entrenched bearish sentiment. The 200-day MA remains a critical long-term support level; a sustained break below $342 would signal structural weakness. Confluence exists at $342–345, where the 200-day MA aligns with recent price support, making this a pivotal zone for trend validation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has extended its negative divergence since early June, with the signal line firmly above the MACD line, reinforcing bearish momentum. KDJ oscillators show Visa exiting oversold territory (K: 35, D: 29, J: 47) but without bullish conviction. While KDJ’s uptick hints at short-term consolidation risk, MACD’s sustained bearishness overshadows this, indicating any rebound may lack durability. This divergence between mildly improving KDJ and decisively negative MACD warrants caution against premature reversal assumptions.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the June 13 sell-off, reflecting surging volatility and directional conviction. Price closed near the lower band ($344), typically signifying oversold conditions but not reversal confirmation. The prior contraction phase in late May preceded this breakdown, aligning with the bearish MA cross. Visa’s repeated tests of the lower band since early June reinforce downward momentum, with a recovery requiring consolidation above the middle band ($359) to stabilize sentiment.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 13 decline occurred on substantially elevated volume (14.17M shares vs. 4.87M on June 12), validating bearish momentum and suggesting institutional distribution. This volume spike contrasts with muted activity during minor May rallies, confirming weak buying interest at higher levels. The two-day sell-off’s rising volume-to-downside correlation underscores sustainable downward pressure, though exhaustion may appear if volume diminishes near $345 support.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Visa’s 14-day RSI plunged to 32, nearing oversold territory (<30). While this may precede short-term stabilization, RSI reached similar levels in January 2025 and August 2024 without immediate reversals. The current reading diverges from oversold signals earlier this year when prices rebounded near $310. This context emphasizes that RSI alone is insufficient for reversal confirmation; volume and price action must align to validate recovery potential.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to Visa’s rally from the August 2024 low ($256) to the April 2025 high ($374) reveals critical levels. The 38.2% retracement ($328) held in May, but the recent breakdown now targets the 50% level ($315). The 61.8% retracement ($302) aligns with the March 2025 consolidation zone. Current support at $345 converges with the 23.6% Fib level, but breach opens path to $315. Confluence exists between Fib levels and major moving averages, particularly the 200-day MA ($342) and the 50% Fib retracement.
Confluence and Divergence Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge at $342–345, combining the 200-day MA, 23.6% Fibonacci level, and recent price support—making this a pivotal zone. A breakdown below $342 would align Bollinger Band volatility expansion, volume-confirmed bearishness, and Fib projections toward $315. Divergences appear between oversold RSI/KDJ readings and unrelenting MACD/MA bearish signals, suggesting rallies may be corrective rather than trend-reversing. Visa's technical posture remains bearish-biased below $359 (50-day MA), requiring coordinated volume recovery and bullish candlestick signals to negate downside momentum.