¿Es VIGI una opción rentable para el año 2026, a pesar de los resultados mixtos? Un análisis detallado de los indicadores de resiliencia de la valoración y de momentum.

The Vanguard ESG U.S. Growth Index Fund (VIGI) has long been a cornerstone for investors seeking alignment between ethical investing and growth-oriented equities. As 2026 approaches, the question of whether VIGI remains a compelling buy hinges on two critical lenses: valuation resilience and momentum indicators. While recent data reveals a nuanced picture, a closer examination of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, price-to-book (P/B) metrics, and technical signals suggests that VIGI's fundamentals and technicals still justify a cautious bullish stance, albeit with caveats.

Valuation Resilience: A Mixed but Manageable Picture

VIGI's valuation metrics, though not directly disclosed in late 2025, can be inferred from its closely related ETF, the Vanguard ESG US Stock ETF (ESGV). According to data from Vanguard's official resources, ESGV traded at a P/E ratio of 27.70 and a P/B ratio of 4.75 in late 2025. These figures, while elevated compared to the broader S&P 500's historical averages, reflect the premium investors are willing to pay for ESG-aligned growth stocks. For context, the S&P 500's P/E ratio averaged around 23x in 2025, while its P/B ratio hovered near 4.0.

The key question is whether these premiums are sustainable. ESGV's P/E of 27.70 suggests that investors are betting on continued earnings growth for the underlying portfolio, which is heavily weighted toward technology and healthcare-sectors that have historically outperformed during periods of low interest rates and innovation-driven demand. However, the P/B ratio of 4.75 indicates that these stocks are not just growing earnings but also commanding significant price appreciation relative to their book values. This could signal optimism about intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property) but also raises concerns about overvaluation if growth slows.

Momentum Indicators: A Strong Buy Signal, with Short-Term Hiccups

Technical analysis of VIGI and ESGV reveals a more compelling narrative. As of December 2025, the 14-day RSI for ESGV stood at 61.155, firmly in "Buy" territory. This metric, which measures relative strength against a benchmark, suggests that the ETF is neither overbought nor oversold and is trending upward. Meanwhile, moving averages for ESGV were at 122.15 and 121.48, both indicating a "Buy" signal. The 5-day moving average, however, diverged slightly to 123.17 and suggested a short-term "Sell" signal. This discrepancy highlights the tension between short-term volatility and long-term trend strength.

Further support comes from the MACD indicator, which for ESGV was at 0.300-a positive reading that signals strengthening bullish momentum. Additionally, the Average Directional Index and Commodity Channel Index both pointed to a "Strong Buy" signal, reinforcing the idea that institutional and algorithmic traders are accumulating the ETF. VIGI's price action also aligns with these signals: it was trading above its 20-day SMA at 91.94 and in the upper band of Bollinger Bands, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend.

Balancing the Mixed Returns

The "mixed returns" narrative stems from two conflicting technical signals: the conflicting RSI readings (61.155 vs. 50.7291) and the short-term sell signal from the 5-day moving average. These inconsistencies are not uncommon in technical analysis, where different timeframes and methodologies can yield divergent conclusions. The critical insight here is that long-term momentum remains intact. For instance, the 200-day moving average-a key indicator of secular trends-was 121.48, well below the current price, indicating that the ETF is in a multi-year uptrend.

From a valuation perspective, the P/E and P/B ratios, while elevated, are not extreme. ESGV's P/E of 27.70 is below the peak P/E of 30x seen in the tech-heavy NASDAQ-100 during the 2021-2022 bull market. Similarly, its P/B ratio of 4.75 is in line with the 5.0x average for growth stocks in the S&P 500. These metrics suggest that VIGI's valuation is resilient to moderate market corrections but could face pressure if interest rates rise sharply or ESG investing loses momentum.

Conclusion: A Buy for the Patient, a Wait-and-See for the Prudent

VIGI's 2026 investment potential rests on its ability to maintain earnings growth and technical strength while navigating macroeconomic headwinds. The ETF's valuation metrics, while not cheap, are justified by its focus on high-growth sectors and ESG alignment. Momentum indicators, despite short-term noise, overwhelmingly favor a bullish outlook. For investors with a 12- to 18-month horizon and a tolerance for volatility, VIGI remains a compelling buy. However, those wary of overvaluation or market corrections should consider a staggered entry or hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk.

In the end, the answer to the question-"Is VIGI a buy in 2026 despite mixed returns?"-is a conditional yes. The ETF's resilience lies in its ability to balance ethical investing with growth, but its success will depend on whether the market continues to reward these dual imperatives.