Vietnam's Commodity Market and Tariff Exposure: Navigating Opportunities in a Shifting Global Trade Landscape

Vietnam's economy has emerged as a beacon of resilience in 2025, defying global trade turbulence with a 7.52% GDP growth in the first half of the year—the fastest in 15 years. This surge, driven by services, manufacturing, and agriculture, underscores Vietnam's strategic positioning as a hub for undervalued commodities and export-driven investment. However, the U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement, which imposes a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese exports and a 40% rate on transshipped goods, has reshaped the landscape. For investors, the challenge lies in identifying sectors where Vietnam's structural strengths can mitigate tariff pressures and global supply chain realignments.

Agriculture: A Sector of Undervalued Potential

Vietnam's agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its trade surplus, is experiencing volatility but holds high-yield opportunities. Rice exports have declined due to weak global demand, but this undervaluation creates a buying opportunity. With global rice prices rebounding in 2025 due to supply chain disruptions, Vietnam's producers are well-positioned to capitalize on renewed demand. Pork prices, meanwhile, have surged 12% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by holiday demand and supply shortages.

Investors should target agri-processing and food-tech companies. Vietnam's modernization of cold-chain infrastructure and logistics networks—fueled by a $1.5 billion investment from the Trump Organization—will enhance export efficiency. For instance, firms specializing in value-added rice products or pork processing could benefit from Vietnam's 16 free trade agreements (FTAs), which provide access to 30% of global GDP.

Energy and Minerals: Strategic Leverage Amid Tariff Shifts

Vietnam's energy sector is poised to thrive under the new U.S. tariff framework. The 20% tariff on most exports may impact energy product competitiveness, but the zero-tariff access for U.S. imports creates opportunities for Vietnamese firms to import advanced U.S. equipment at lower costs. This is particularly relevant for renewable energy projects, where U.S. technology can accelerate Vietnam's transition to cleaner energy.

The country's mineral sector, often overlooked, is gaining traction. Vietnam's reserves of rare earth elements and bauxite position it as a critical player in the global green energy transition. With U.S. tariffs on transshipped goods, Vietnamese firms must ensure "substantial transformation" of imported materials to avoid penalties. However, strategic partnerships with U.S. firms could streamline compliance and unlock access to high-value markets.

Electronics and Supporting Industries: Localization as a Shield

Vietnam's electronics sector remains a linchpin, with $38.41 billion in exports in 2025. Despite the 20% U.S. tariff, exemptions under the trade agreement and Vietnam's cost advantages maintain competitiveness. The sector's strength is reinforced by FDI in local component manufacturing, reducing reliance on transshipment. For example, Samsung's partnership with 257 Vietnamese suppliers has boosted localization rates, with LG aiming for 50% by 2025.

Investors should prioritize firms in semiconductor manufacturing, printed circuit boards, and renewable energy components. Vietnam's 10% corporate income tax rate for 15 years and Decree No. 205/2025/D-CP, which covers up to 70% of R&D costs, create a favorable environment for scaling local supply chains.

Strategic Positioning: Diversification and Compliance

Vietnam's trade diversification strategy mitigates U.S. tariff risks. Its FTAs, including CPTPP and RCEP, reduce reliance on the U.S. market (now 25% of exports). Investors should prioritize companies with diversified export markets and compliance with origin rules. For instance, firms in the textile sector must ensure "Made in Vietnam" labeling to avoid the 40% transshipment tariff.

Infrastructure and logistics present another avenue. Vietnam's $500-trillion VND stimulus package includes projects like the North–South high-speed railway and Long Thanh International Airport, reducing transportation costs and boosting export efficiency.

Conclusion: A Market of Calculated Opportunities

Vietnam's 7.52% GDP growth, stable inflation, and FDI inflows signal a market primed for strategic investment. While U.S. tariffs pose near-term risks, they also catalyze structural shifts toward localization and diversification. Investors who target agri-processing, electronics components, and logistics—while prioritizing compliance with origin rules—can capitalize on Vietnam's resilience.

The time to act is now. Vietnam's economy is not just surviving global turbulence; it's thriving—and those who position themselves early will reap the rewards.