Viction/Tether Market Overview (VICUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-14 12:00 to 2025-09-15 12:00 ET)

• Price declined from 0.2397 to 0.2280, with sharp sell-offs starting around 08:15 ET.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence, with volume peaking during the drop.
• Bollinger Bands show volatility expansion as price moved well below the lower band.
• Key support at 0.2230–0.2250 now in focus, with Fibonacci retracement levels confirming potential bounce or continuation.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the final hours, indicating uncertainty in the short term.

The Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) pair opened at 0.2366 and dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.2218 before closing at 0.2280 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over 24 hours was 1,331,528.58 VICT, and the notional turnover was $307,297.50.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours showed a strong bearish bias. A significant sell-off occurred around 08:15 ET as the price dropped from 0.2338 to 0.2315 in one candle. This was followed by a large bearish body, indicating rejection of higher levels. A long lower shadow at 07:45 ET (0.2335) hinted at a failed support attempt. The price subsequently broke key support levels at 0.2300 and 0.2270 before reaching the critical zone of 0.2230–0.2250. A possible bullish reversal candle emerged at 05:30 ET with a high of 0.2406 and a close at 0.2405, but it was quickly erased by increased selling pressure.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period on 15-minute chart) indicate a steep downward trend, with the 20-period line well below the 50-period line. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 100 and 200-period daily lines, confirming a bearish crossover. The price remains below all these lines, reinforcing a downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, with the histogram shrinking as the downtrend accelerated. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though it did not hold, suggesting momentum continued to favor the bears. Divergence between price and RSI near 05:00 ET suggests a possible near-term bounce or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with the price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band at 0.2280. This indicates extreme bearish pressure and could be a signal for a short-term bounce, though a break below the 0.2250 level would suggest further downside potential. The upper band was last tested around 04:30 ET at 0.2399, which failed to hold.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key sell-off at 08:15 ET and again at 09:00 ET, indicating strong institutional or algorithmic selling. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, confirming the strength of the move. However, in the final hours, volume and turnover started to diverge, suggesting uncertainty and potential for a pause or reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.2406–0.2218 swing, key levels to watch include 0.2352 (38.2%), 0.2320 (50%), and 0.2288 (61.8%). Price has stalled near 0.2280, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement level. A break above this level could signal a temporary rebound, while a break below 0.2250 would suggest continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum confirmed by MACD and RSI divergence, as well as the clear breakdown in key support levels and volume spikes, a short-term sell-off strategy using stop-loss orders placed at 0.2250 and take-profit levels at 0.2190–0.2210 would appear to be a viable approach. The MACD crossover and RSI overbought readings at the 0.2406 high also suggest that a bearish trade opened at 0.2399 with a stop at 0.2425 would have yielded a favorable risk-reward profile. This setup can be backtested using 15-minute and daily OHLC data to evaluate its statistical significance across multiple timeframes.