Viction/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) closed lower after forming a bearish engulfing pattern on a key resistance cluster.
• Price retested prior support at 0.1965 but failed to break above 0.1985, indicating bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked at 0.1985, confirming rejection on the 15-minute timeframe.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands constricted, signaling potential for a bounce.
• Turnover surged past $1.3M during the bearish breakdown, highlighting increased bear activity.

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2012 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1963 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.2006 and a low of 0.1950 during the 24-hour window. Total volume reached 622,016.54 with a notional turnover of approximately $125,348. The price action revealed a clear breakdown from a consolidation range, with bearish pressure intensifying as the session progressed.

Structure on the 15-minute chart shows a key resistance cluster forming between 0.1985 and 0.2006, which was rejected after a brief attempt to rally. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the consolidation, confirming the breakdown. The price subsequently tested support at 0.1965, which held for a time but failed to reverse the trend. A doji appeared near 0.1974 at 03:45 ET, suggesting a temporary pause in the bear move.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were below the current price, supporting the bearish bias. The daily chart showed the price below all major MAs (50, 100, 200), reinforcing the downtrend. MACD showed a bearish crossover with negative histogram divergence, while the RSI hit oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a bounce. Bollinger Bands constricted sharply during the late ET hours, signaling a possible breakout or breakdown. The price remained below the lower band for much of the session, indicating high volatility and bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart highlighted key levels: 38.2% at 0.1976 and 61.8% at 0.1963, both of which were tested and either failed or held. A breakdown below 0.1963 could open the door to the next Fibonacci level at 0.1950. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at 0.1960 has now been breached, confirming the continuation of the bear trend.

Volume and turnover surged during the breakdown from 0.1985–0.2006, with a notable spike at 0.1965. However, volume during the rally back to 0.1974 was relatively weak, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction. This divergence between price and volume may indicate a potential continuation of the bear move rather than a reversal.

A backtesting hypothesis can now be applied based on the observed technical indicators. Given the bearish engulfing pattern, RSI oversold readings, and volume divergence, a short bias could be justified for the next 24 hours. However, a close above 0.1985 would negate this setup and could signal a short-term reversal. Investors should remain cautious, as the market remains in a high-volatility phase with key levels in play.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential trading strategy could involve shorting VICUSDT after a bearish engulfing pattern forms above a key resistance level (0.1985–0.2006) and confirms with a close below a Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% at 0.1963). Stop-loss placement could be above the high of the engulfing pattern, with a target at the next Fibonacci level (0.1950). This approach would be validated if RSI confirms overbought conditions and MACD shows bearish divergence. Given the 15-minute chart structure and current momentum indicators, this strategy aligns with the observed trend and could be applied in real-time with a time-bound stop.