Viasat's ViaSat-3 F2 Satellite Launch: Is the Stock Undervalued or Overvalued?

Viasat's (VSAT) ViaSat-3 F2 satellite is set for an October 2025 launch, expected to more than double the company's bandwidth capacity and introduce next-level dynamic beam forming technology. The satellite aligns with Viasat's multi-orbit network ambitions. The stock has shown fresh momentum, with significant contracts in the Defense and Advanced Technologies group and growth in maritime and aviation connectivity divisions. However, the most popular narrative suggests Viasat is overvalued by 22.1% compared to its calculated fair value of $24.29. Ongoing high capital expenditures and declining U.S. broadband subscribers pose risks to the company's growth story.

Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT) is set to launch its ViaSat-3 F2 satellite in the second half of October 2025, marking a significant milestone in the company's multi-orbit network expansion. The satellite, designed to dramatically increase bandwidth capacity and introduce next-level dynamic beam forming technology, is expected to more than double Viasat's current bandwidth capacity [1].

The ViaSat-3 F2 launch aligns with Viasat's strategic ambitions to provide resilient, global satellite communications for commercial mobility and defense customers. The satellite will be part of a global constellation that offers substantial capacity and bandwidth economics, with flexibility to concentrate capacity in high-demand areas [1]. This launch comes at a critical time, as demand for satellite communications is increasing significantly [1].

In addition to the ViaSat-3 F2 launch, Viasat has shown fresh momentum through significant contracts in the Defense and Advanced Technologies group, as well as growth in maritime and aviation connectivity divisions. The company recently received an award worth AUD 252 million from Geoscience Australia and Toitū Te Whenua Land Information New Zealand, further expanding its global reach and customer relevance [2].

However, the most popular narrative suggests that Viasat is overvalued by 22.1% compared to its calculated fair value of $24.29. Ongoing high capital expenditures and declining U.S. broadband subscribers pose risks to the company's growth story [3]. Investors should closely monitor these factors as they could significantly impact Viasat's financial performance and valuation.

References:
[1] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/viasat-inc-announces-viasat-3-f2-scheduled-to-launch-in-october-expected-to-more-than-double-vias-ce7d59d8db80f722
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/viasat-vsat-gets-award-support-050501184.html
[3] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/tech/nasdaq-vsat/viasat/news/will-viasats-vsat-next-satellite-launch-reshape-its-competit