¿Por qué la salida de 63% de Vertex es una oportunidad de compra contraria

The recent 63% decline in Vertex, Inc. (VERX) shares since late 2024 has sparked debate among investors. While the selloff appears severe, a closer look at the company's fundamentals, institutional support, and valuation discount reveals a compelling case for value investors seeking undervalued SaaS stocks. With a $150 million stock buyback program, robust recurring revenue, and strategic leadership changes, Vertex's current discount may represent a contrarian opportunity to capitalize on its long-term growth trajectory.

Strong Fundamentals Amid a Sharp Selloff

Vertex's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its resilience. Total revenue rose 12.7% year-over-year to $192.1 million, with cloud revenue surging 29.6% to $92.0 million. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $648.2 million, up 12.4% YoY, while net revenue retention held steady at 107%. These metrics highlight the company's ability to retain and expand its customer base, a critical factor for SaaS firms.

Despite these positives, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500, which gained 15% over the past 12 months, while Vertex's shares fell 63%. This divergence suggests the market is discounting Vertex's growth prospects more aggressively than its peers. However, the company's financial health remains intact, with 65% gross margins and 9.9% free cash flow margins. A $150 million stock repurchase program, announced in Q3 2025, further signals management's confidence in the company's ability to generate value.

Institutional Confidence in Vertex's Long-Term Vision

Institutional investors appear to share this optimism. Tensile Capital Management increased its stake in Vertex to 3.8 million shares, valued at $94.3 million as of September 30, 2025. While the position's value dropped by $34.4 million during the quarter, the firm's decision to deepen its holdings indicates a belief in Vertex's strategic direction. Similarly, Hyperion Capital Advisors LP added a $13.387 million position in Vertex, acquiring 540,000 shares. These moves by institutional investors, combined with insider ownership of 48% of the company, suggest alignment between management and shareholders.

Vertex's leadership transition also bolsters its long-term prospects. Christopher Young, a former Microsoft executive, with expertise in AI and cloud technology, was appointed CEO in 2025. His background positions Vertex to navigate the growing demand for digital tax compliance solutions, particularly as global tax regulations become increasingly complex.

A Discounted Valuation in a High-Growth Sector

Vertex's trailing P/E ratio of 285.23 appears elevated at first glance but is justified by its 15.9% three-year revenue CAGR and 28% projected cloud revenue growth for 2025. When compared to SaaS peers, Vertex's valuation looks increasingly attractive. For instance, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), a biotech firm with a 21.5% average annual revenue growth rate, trades at a 38.7% operating margin. While not a direct comparison, DVRTX's strong profitability highlights how growth-oriented companies are valued across sectors. Vertex's underperformance against the S&P 500-down 63% versus the index's 15% gain-creates a significant margin of safety for value investors. The company's mission-critical software integration with enterprise systems like SAP and Oracle, coupled with its Oracle-validated ERP tax solution, positions it as an indispensable partner for global enterprises. This defensiveness, combined with its recurring revenue model, provides long-term visibility that is rare in today's volatile markets.

Conclusion: A Contrarian Opportunity in SaaS

Vertex's selloff reflects short-term market skepticism rather than a fundamental flaw in its business model. With $648.2 million in ARR, 29.6% cloud growth, and a $150 million buyback program, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on its market opportunities. Institutional support from Tensile and Hyperion, along with strategic leadership changes, further reinforces its long-term potential. For value investors, the current discount to intrinsic value-amplified by Vertex's underperformance against the S&P 500-presents a rare opportunity to invest in a high-quality SaaS firm at a compelling price.