Veracyte's Q1 2025: Unpacking Contradictions in Metastatic Revenue and Growth Expectations

Metastatic revenue expectations, Afirma growth drivers, growth expectations for Afirma, Decipher ASP and revenue growth, and reimbursement strategy and market penetration expectations are the key contradictions discussed in Veracyte's latest 2025Q1 earnings call.



Strong Financial Performance:
- Veracyte reported revenue of $114.5 million for Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-over-year growth.
- The growth was fueled by testing revenue, which increased by 19% year-over-year, driven by the strong performance of Decipher and Afirma.

Growth in Decipher Prostate:
- Decipher product volume grew by 37% year-over-year, with approximately 22,600 tests.
- The growth was attributed to record expansion across different biopsy NCCN risk categories and positive trends in ordering providers.

Afirma and its Expansion:
- Afirma volume increased by 10% year-over-year, resulting in approximately 15,500 tests.
- Higher year-over-year utilization per account and indication expansions contributed to the growth, despite a previous coverage policy change impacting revenue.

Investment in New Products and Geographical Expansion:
- Veracyte is progressing with its Decipher Prostate metastatic launch, expected to expand its addressable patient population significantly.
- The company also plans to introduce Prosigna as an LDT in the U.S., aiming to leverage evidence generation for adoption and growth in the breast cancer market.