VEON Soars to 52-Week High—But What’s Fueling the Surge?

• VEON’s stock surges 9.56% to $49.83, hitting a 52-week high of $59.68 earlier in the session.
• Secured $52.3M in non-redemption agreements for Kyivstar’s Nasdaq listing via Cohen Circle.
• Technicals show a break above the 50-day moving average ($45.58) with RSI at 65.94, signaling strong momentum.

The stock’s explosive rally reflects investor optimism around Kyivstar’s U.S. listing, but geopolitical risks and regulatory hurdles remain critical watchpoints. Today’s range from $49.30 to $59.68 underscores volatile momentum ahead of Q3’s critical milestones.

Kyivstar Nasdaq Listing Catalyst Ignites Momentum
VEON’s surge stems from two strategic catalysts: (1) securing $52.3M in institutional non-redemption agreements—critical to meeting the $50M cash condition for Kyivstar’s Nasdaq listing—and (2) its $1B Ukrainian infrastructure pledge through 2027. The agreements, backed by firms like Helikon and Clearline, remove execution risk for the Cohen Circle business combination, now targeting Q3 closure. Investors are pricing in Kyivstar’s unique status as Ukraine’s first U.S.-listed telecom giant, with geopolitical tailwinds boosting its narrative despite macro headwinds.

Wireless Sector Lagging as VEON Outperforms
While Verizon (VZ), the sector leader, dipped -0.82%, VEON’s outlier performance highlights its divergence from broader telecom trends. The Wireless Telecommunications Services sector faces stagnation due to regulatory uncertainty and pricing pressures, but VEON’s Nasdaq listing play and Ukraine-focused growth story create a compelling contrarian narrative. Its 9.56% gain vs. VZ’s decline underscores thematic investing’s dominance over sector-wide stagnation.

Layer Calls to Capture Nasdaq Listing Momentum
• Technical Indicators:
- Bollinger Bands: Current price ($49.83) above upper band ($48.16), signaling breakout momentum.
- RSI: 65.94 (neutral, not overbought).
- MACD: +0.58 histogram (bullish crossover confirmed).
- 30-day MA: $45.58 (now support; price is 9.5% above).

Trade Setup: Maintain longs above $48.16; a breach below $45.58 triggers profit-taking. Key resistance at $55 (prior high) and $60 (analyst target) will test momentum. Avoid leveraged ETFs due to sector-specific risks.

Top Options Picks:
1. VEON20250718C50 (Call, $50 strike, July 18):
- Delta: 0.50 (neutral sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.225 (fast decaying)
- Gamma: 0.1015 (high price responsiveness)
- Turnover: $5,610 (strong liquidity)
- Why: Offers 36.36% leverage for near-term $50–$55 rallies. A 5% upside to $52.33 yields ~5.7% returns.

2. VEON20250919C50 (Call, $50 strike, September 19):
- Delta: 0.57 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.061 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0225 (moderate responsiveness)
- Turnover: $19,600 (extremely liquid)
- Why: Best for sustained momentum through Q3’s Nasdaq listing. A 5% rise to $52.33 delivers ~5.6% returns with minimal time decay.

Hook: Layer the July 50 for short-term gains and the September 50 for a $60 target run. Fade rallies above $58 until Nasdaq approval is confirmed.

Backtest VEON Stock Performance
The backtest of VEON's performance after a 10% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 48.56%, the 10-Day win rate at 53.24%, and the 30-Day win rate at 57.55%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.25% over 30 days, indicating that there is potential for significant gains following a substantial intraday increase.

Hold Longs Above $48—Watch for Nasdaq Catalysts
VEON’s rally hinges on Kyivstar’s Nasdaq listing execution and geopolitical stability in Ukraine. Technicals remain bullish with RSI in expansion mode, but $45.58 support must hold. With Verizon (VZ) down -0.82%, VEON’s outlier status is clear—this is a thematic bet on Ukraine’s telecom future. Investors should stay long above $48.16 but brace for volatility ahead of Q3’s close. Key alerts: Break below $45.58 triggers profit-taking; $55–$60 resistance determines long-term momentum. Bottom line: Stay aggressive but disciplined—this stock isn’t for the faint-hearted.