Venus/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined sharply from 5.19 to 4.83 amid heavy volume
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions near 4.80–4.85
• Bollinger Bands show price near the 1σ lower band
• Volume spiked during key support levels but failed to sustain

The Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) pair opened at 5.14 on October 21, 2025 (12:00 ET – 1), touched a high of 5.19, and closed at 4.83 at the same time the next day. The price declined 6.67%, trading as low as 4.80. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 151,094.24 units, and notional turnover reached $706,540.57.

The price action was dominated by bearish momentum, particularly from 17:00 ET to 05:00 ET, when a sustained sell-off drove XVSUSDT below critical psychological and Fibonacci support levels. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA convergence remained negative, signaling continuation risk.

MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with the histogram expanding through the decline. RSI bottomed near 30–35 in the 4.80–4.85 range, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands constricted during the early hours, followed by a sharp price contraction to the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion.

Volume spiked at key support levels—most notably at 4.85 and 4.80—but failed to reverse the trend, indicating lack of buying interest. Price-volume divergence was evident after 08:00 ET, as volume declined while price continued to drop. This suggests a potential nearing of the bottom or a setup for a consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest using the Bearish Engulfing pattern as a short entry signal could be structured as follows: Close the short position the next trading day’s close, unless a stop-loss is hit. A fixed-risk approach is recommended—using a 1% stop-loss and 3% take-profit—while allocating 100% capital per confirmed signal. The back-test would run from January 1, 2022, to October 22, 2025, capturing the effectiveness of this pattern in the XVSUSDT context. The current analysis suggests that the pattern would likely align with the observed bearish exhaustion and Fibonacci retracement levels, especially in the 4.80–4.92 range.