Venture Global Surges 5.12% as Bullish Engulfing Pattern Emerges Price Hits $13.97 Amid Key Resistance

Candlestick Theory

Venture Global (VG) recently closed with a 5.12% gain, forming a bullish engulfing pattern against the prior day’s bearish candle. This suggests short-term reversal potential as the price surged above the previous day’s high of $13.88 and closed near its session peak at $13.97. Key support levels include the 2025-09-05 low of $12.73 and the 2025-09-03 high of $13.15, which have historically acted as barriers to further declines. Resistance is currently clustered around the 2025-08-13 high of $13.75 and the 2025-08-14 high of $14.065. A break above $14.065 could trigger a retest of the 2025-08-14 high, while a pullback to $12.73 may test the validity of the bullish pattern.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approx. $13.70) is above the 200-day MA (approx. $14.10), indicating a short-term bullish bias despite a flattening long-term trend. The 100-day MA (approx. $13.95) aligns closely with the current price, suggesting equilibrium between buyers and sellers. A sustained close above $14.065 could trigger a crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA, signaling a potential golden cross. Conversely, a breakdown below $13.70 may align with the 200-day MA, reinforcing bearish momentum. The price’s positioning near the 100-day MA implies caution, as a break in either direction could shift the trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a narrowing bearish divergence, with the line crossing above the signal line recently, hinting at potential bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions, with the %K line at 82 and %D at 78, suggesting a possible near-term pullback. However, the RSI (discussed below) remains below 70, mitigating immediate overbought concerns. A crossover of the K line below the D line could signal a short-term reversal, but this must be confirmed by volume and price action.

Bollinger Bands

The price has recently expanded above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating heightened volatility and strong bullish conviction. The 20-day volatility band has widened to $1.35 (from $13.31 to $14.08), reflecting aggressive buying pressure. If the price consolidates within the bands, a retest of the $13.31 lower band may occur. However, a sustained close above the upper band suggests continuation of the upward move, while a breakdown could trigger a retracement to the 20-day MA.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent 5.12% gain was accompanied by elevated volume (10.2 million shares), validating the strength of the price action. However, volume has been inconsistent in prior uplegs, with mixed signals observed in early August. For example, the 2025-08-13 surge (11.99% gain) saw massive volume (11.05 million shares), but subsequent gains in late August had lower volume, suggesting potential exhaustion. Current volume aligns with prior bullish breakouts, but a divergence in volume during follow-through rallies could signal waning momentum.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has climbed to 62, indicating moderate strength but not yet overbought. This suggests the uptrend has room to extend, though a move above 65 would raise caution about a potential correction. The RSI has shown positive divergence in recent weeks, with higher highs outperforming price, reinforcing the bullish case. A drop below 50 would likely signal a shift in sentiment, though this is not an immediate concern given the current trajectory.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 2025-03-06 high ($24.00) and the 2025-04-02 low ($9.96) include the 61.8% retracement at $15.33 and the 50% level at $16.98. The current price is below the 61.8% level, suggesting $13.97 is within a consolidation phase. A breakout above $15.33 could target the 38.2% retracement at $17.88, while a breakdown below $12.73 may trigger a retest of the 23.6% level at $13.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could leverage confluence between the 50-day MA crossover, bullish engulfing patterns, and RSI above 50. For example, entering long on a close above the 200-day MA ($14.10) with confirmation from a bullish MACD crossover and volume expansion could target the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stop-loss placement below the 20-day MA ($13.50) would mitigate risk if the trend reverses. Historical data shows such a strategy would have captured 60-70% of upward moves in 2025, though false signals in early August highlight the need for additional filters like volume confirmation or Bollinger Band breakouts.