Venture Global Soars 28.87% In 3 Days But Faces Resistance At 15.82 Amid Overbought Signals

Candlestick Theory
Venture Global exhibits a pronounced bullish momentum, with three consecutive long green candles culminating in a 28.87% surge over June 2–4. The June 4 session closed at $14.91 (+4.41%) after testing $15.82 intraday, forming a Shooting Star pattern—a long upper wick signaling rejection near $15.82 resistance. This follows June 3’s $14.28 close (+21.12%), characterized by a robust green body with minimal wicks. Key support emerges at $14.28 (prior close), while $15.82 represents a critical resistance barrier requiring volume-backed conviction to overcome.
Moving Average Theory
The 20-day MA (approximating short-term) at $10.85 and 50-day MA at $10.10 both slope upward, confirming a strengthening bullish trend. Price action resides significantly above these averages, highlighting sustained upward momentum. However, the proximity between the 20-day and 50-day MAs suggests consolidation risk. The absence of 100/200-day MAs due to limited data (70 sessions) precludes long-term trend validation, but shorter averages unanimously endorse current bullishness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a rising histogram, with the MACD line (0.95) above the signal line (0.62), affirming bullish momentum. Concurrently, KDJ registers %K at 88 and %D at 85, nearing overbought thresholds. While MACD divergence remains absent, KDJ’s proximity to overbought territory warns of potential short-term exhaustion. The absence of bearish crossover in both oscillators suggests near-term upside retention, though prudence is warranted given elevated KDJ readings.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion is evident as price hugs the upper band ($14.50), reflecting strong bullish pressure. Band width increased sharply during the June 3–4 rally, confirming breakout validity. The $15.82 high briefly breached the upper band, inviting a mean-reversion risk, though closing within bands reduces immediate reversal concerns. Lower band support sits at $10.25, with the $13.50 midline acting as a pullback buffer.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains are validated by escalating volume, peaking at 18.07M shares on June 3—triple the 30-day average. June 4’s 17.02M volume maintained elevated participation despite a reduced price advance (+4.41% vs. +21.12%), hinting at supply absorption near $15.82. This volume surge supports continuation potential, though diminishing volume on extended rallies may foreshadow fatigue.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 78, firmly in overbought territory (>70). Historically, such levels preceded pullbacks (e.g., April 2025’s RSI 82 preceded a 40% drop). However, strong trends can sustain overbought RSI, and the current reading lacks bearish divergence. While not an immediate sell signal, it flags elevated risk and necessitates tight stop-losses. Confluence with the $15.82 resistance heightens reversal probability.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib to the rally from $6.75 (April 7 low) to $15.82 (June 4 high) identifies retracement supports at $13.68 (23.6%), $12.36 (38.2%), and $11.28 (50%). Current price trades above all Fib levels, indicating robust trend strength. The 23.6% level ($13.68) aligns with June 4’s low ($14.42), offering immediate support. A close below $13.68 would signal deeper correction potential toward $12.36, where the 38.2% retracement converges with the 20-day MA ($10.85) and volume-based support.
Confluence & Divergence
Bullish confluence appears with MACD, volume, and MA alignment supporting upside continuation. Notable divergence exists between RSI/KDJ’s overbought warnings and unbroken price momentum. The $15.82 resistance is critical—a confirmed breakout may extend gains toward $17.50, but rejection here amid overbought oscillators may trigger profit-taking toward $13.68–$14.28 support. Traders should monitor volume: sustained high turnover at resistance favors breakout, while contraction near $15.82 increases retracement risk.