Venture Global's 7.53% Drop and 1.01% Rally Signal Mixed Technical Outlook

Candlestick Theory

Venture Global’s recent price action exhibits a mix of bearish and bullish signals. The most recent session (2025-10-08) closed at $13.03, up 1.01%, forming a small bullish candlestick after a sharp -7.53% drop on October 7th. This suggests potential short-term support at $12.85 (the October 8th low) and resistance at $13.875 (the October 7th high). A bearish engulfing pattern on October 7th indicates strong selling pressure, but the subsequent recovery hints at a possible consolidation phase. Key support levels are reinforced by the October 3rd low ($13.7207) and the September 30th close ($14.19), while resistance aligns with the September 26th high ($14.83) and the August 13th peak ($13.99).

Moving Average Theory

Short-term (50-day) and long-term (200-day) moving averages suggest a bearish bias. The 50-day MA (approximately $13.50) has likely crossed below the 100-day MA ($14.00), forming a death cross, while the 200-day MA ($14.50) remains a critical hurdle. The current price ($13.03) sits well below all three, confirming a downtrend. However, the 200-day MA’s position as a dynamic resistance level may delay further declines if buyers emerge. The 50-day MA’s recent pullback toward $13.20 could act as a near-term floor, but a break below $12.85 would invalidate bullish hopes.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has contracted from a bearish peak on October 7th, suggesting waning downward momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator (K: 25, D: 30) shows the price in oversold territory, potentially signaling a short-term bounce. However, the K line’s failure to cross above D raises caution about a sustained reversal. Divergence between the RSI and price action (discussed below) further complicates the outlook, indicating a high probability of a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the bands widening post-October 7th’s selloff. The price currently rests near the lower band ($12.85), a classic oversold signal. A break above the middle band ($13.45) would reduce volatility concerns, but the bands’ expansion suggests continued uncertainty. If the price closes above the upper band ($13.875), it could trigger a short-term rally, though this remains speculative given the broader bearish context.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume surged on October 7th (8.8M shares) and October 2nd (5.4M shares), validating the selloffs but also indicating potential accumulation by long-term buyers. Conversely, the recent 1.01% gain on October 8th saw lower volume (5.07M shares), weakening the bullish signal. A surge in volume during a pullback would strengthen the case for a reversal, whereas declining volume on rallies (as seen on October 3rd and 6th) suggests distribution by short-term traders.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI (30.92) is in oversold territory, implying a possible rebound. However, the indicator has been trending lower since mid-September, suggesting the downtrend remains intact. A close above 40 would be a positive sign, but a failure to break above 50 would reinforce bearish sentiment. RSI divergence (price making higher lows while RSI makes lower lows) is evident since early October, increasing the likelihood of a continuation of the decline.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the May 2025 high ($24.00) to the July low ($7.00) include 23.6% ($17.00), 38.2% ($14.00), and 50% ($15.50). The current price ($13.03) aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, acting as a potential support zone. A break below this would target the 61.8% level ($11.00), but the 50% level ($15.50) remains a critical psychological barrier for bulls.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy—buying when RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops below 70—faces significant limitations due to the lack of historical RSI data prior to 2025. In the available dataset (2025-01-24 to 2025-10-08), RSI never entered overbought territory (>70), with the highest reading at 53.41 on October 1st. The latest RSI (30.92) is in oversold conditions, suggesting no buy signals would have been triggered. A sell signal would only occur if the price rebounds and RSI crosses below 30, but the current volatility and lack of trend clarity make this strategy ineffective in the observed timeframe. Extending the backtest period or adjusting the RSI thresholds (e.g., using 60/40 instead of 70/30) might improve alignment with recent price behavior.