Venture Global's 3.74% Rally Strengthens as Bullish Engulfing Pattern and Golden Cross Signal Short-Term Momentum

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action for Venture Global (VG) reveals a mix of bullish and bearish signals. On October 1, 2025, a strong 3.74% upward close at $14.72 forms a bullish engulfing pattern against the prior day’s bearish candle (September 30, -0.21%). This suggests short-term buyers are overpowering sellers. Key support levels emerge at $14.22–$14.53, tested repeatedly between September 29 and October 1, while resistance aligns with the September 26 high of $14.83. A potential piercing line on September 25 (1.51% close near the midpoint of the range) further reinforces the $14.22 support zone as a critical area for a bounce.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is bullish, with the 50-day MA likely above the 100-day MA (confirmed by the recent 3.74% rally), while the 200-day MA remains a critical long-term reference. The 50-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA (a golden cross) on August 13, 2025, marked a significant bullish shift. However, the 100-day MA lags behind, creating a bullish divergence that suggests medium-term strength. If the 50-day MA continues to outperform the 100-day MA, the stock may test the 200-day MA as a potential breakout threshold. A crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA would confirm a sustained uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram expanded on October 1, 2025, indicating growing bullish momentum, while the signal line (9-day EMA) appears to cross above the MACD line—a golden cross—reinforcing the recent rally. The KDJ (stochastic oscillator) shows %K rising above %D on October 1, signaling a bullish crossover. However, the RSI (discussed separately) remains below overbought levels, reducing immediate reversal risk. A potential death cross in the KDJ (e.g., %K falling below %D) could emerge if the RSI surpasses 70 and triggers a bearish divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the October 1 close near the upper Bollinger Band ($14.72 vs. band width of ~$0.61). This suggests the stock is in a high-volatility breakout phase. The bands have widened after a period of contraction in late September, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move. If the price stays above the 20-day SMA (middle band), the bullish bias remains intact. A retest of the lower band (~$13.80) could occur if the RSI triggers a sell signal.

Volume-Price Relationship

The October 1 volume (4.6 million shares) is notably higher than the 30-day average, validating the price surge. This positive divergence between rising prices and expanding volume suggests strong institutional participation. However, the September 29 session (4.11% drop) also saw elevated volume (5.7 million shares), highlighting a bearish divergence that could signal lingering selling pressure. Sustained volume above 5 million shares on up days would strengthen the bullish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI on October 1 stands at 63.21, approaching overbought territory but not yet triggering a warning. A close above 70 would signal potential exhaustion, but the current trajectory suggests this threshold may be reached by mid-October. The RSI has shown positive momentum over the past 14 days, with average gains outpacing losses. However, a bearish divergence could develop if the RSI peaks before the price, indicating a possible trend reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels between the 2025-06-03 high ($19.01) and the 2025-09-19 low ($13.25) are critical. The 38.2% retracement level (~$15.30) acts as a potential resistance, while the 61.8% level (~$14.40) aligns with the September 24–25 support zone. A break above $14.83 (the September 26 high) would target the 78.6% retracement level (~$16.10).

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy leverages a MACD golden cross as a buy signal and an RSI overbought trigger (70+) as a sell signal. Historical data shows a golden cross on August 13, 2025, when the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA. The RSI, however, has yet to reach 70, remaining at 63.21 as of October 1. A hypothetical trade executed on August 13 would have captured an 8.98% gain by October 1, with the RSI near overbought levels. This suggests the strategy could yield short-term profits but risks prolonged holding periods if the RSI fails to trigger a sell signal.