Velocity Financial (VEL): A Hidden Gem in the Non-QM and CRE Lending Landscape

Velocity Financial (VEL) delivered a standout performance in Q1 2025, showcasing robust growth across its core lending segments while maintaining disciplined risk management. With record loan production, a stable net interest margin, and an undervalued P/E ratio, the company presents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the non-QM and commercial real estate (CRE) lending sectors. Let's dissect why VEL could be a winning long-term play—and why its valuation gap creates a rare buying opportunity.



### Key Drivers of Growth: Loan Production and Market Expansion
Velocity Financial's Q1 results were anchored by a 69.1% year-over-year surge in loan production to $640.4 million. This growth was fueled by two key segments:
- Traditional Commercial Loans: Up 94.9% to $324.8 million, reflecting strong demand from small- to mid-sized businesses.
- Investor 1-4 Rental Loans: Rising 59.6% to $266.6 million, capitalizing on the red-hot rental housing market.

The company also expanded into government-insured multifamily loans via its subsidiary, Century Health & Housing Capital, originating $4.9 million in Q1. This diversification into regulated lending segments reduces reliance on non-QM (non-qualified mortgage) products, which remain riskier but still a core part of its portfolio.



### Valuation: Undervalued for a Growing Lender
With a P/E ratio of 9.72 as of June 2025—well below its sector peers like PennyMac (PFSI, P/E 9.12) and Walker & Dunlop (WD, P/E 14.5)—Velocity Financial trades at a discount despite its strong growth metrics. Here's why this gap exists:
- Strong EPS Growth: Core diluted EPS rose 8.2% year-over-year to $0.55, driven by higher origination fees (+74%) and portfolio growth.
- Stable Net Interest Margin (NIM): The 3.35% portfolio NIM reflects disciplined rate-setting, with average loan coupons at 10.8% over the past five quarters. Even as securitization costs dipped, VEL maintained spreads to protect margins.
- Balance Sheet Strength: Total assets hit $5.97 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter, with liquidity at $75.6 million.



### Addressing Risks: NPLs and Market Volatility
No investment is without risks, and VEL faces two primary headwinds:
1. Rising Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): NPLs increased to 10.8% of the loan portfolio, up from 10.1% a year ago. However, recovery rates remain robust at 102.4%, and the charge-off spike was driven by a single large loss. Management has maintained a CECL reserve rate of 0.22%, slightly elevated but manageable given the portfolio's diversification.
2. Operating Expense Growth: Costs rose 36% YoY, mainly due to production commissions. While this signals scaling challenges, it's a byproduct of success—higher loan volumes require greater staffing and servicing capacity.

### Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip in a Growing CRE/NQM Market
Velocity Financial's diversified revenue streams—including origination fees, net interest income, and unrealized gains on fair-value loans—create a resilient earnings profile. The company's strategic moves into government-backed multifamily loans and its focus on smaller CRE properties (e.g., office, mixed-use) position it to capitalize on niche demand.

Why Now?
- Undervalued Multiple: At 9.72x earnings, VEL is priced for stagnation, not growth. A return to its 5-year average P/E of 8.59 would still leave room for upside.
- Strong Capital Management: The ATM program raised $28.8 million at an accretive $18.35/share, signaling confidence in its stock.
- Macro Tailwinds: CRE and rental housing demand remain robust, especially for smaller-scale, investor-owned properties.

Backtest the performance of Velocity Financial (VEL) when 'buy condition' is triggered after positive quarterly earnings announcements, and hold for 20 trading days, from 2020 to 2025.

Historical backtests since 2020 confirm the strategy's effectiveness: buying VEL after positive quarterly earnings and holding for 20 days generated an average annual return of 25.26%, outperforming the benchmark by 111.96%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.62. While this approach carried a maximum drawdown of 34.47%, the risk-adjusted returns suggest it's a viable catalyst-driven strategy for investors.

This resilience underscores VEL's potential to deliver asymmetric returns in volatile markets.

### Conclusion: A Long-Term Play with Asymmetric Reward
Velocity Financial's Q1 results reaffirm its position as a leader in non-QM and CRE lending. While NPLs warrant monitoring, the company's track record of high recovery rates and disciplined underwriting—evidenced by a 66.1% weighted average LTV—suggests these risks are manageable. With a P/E ratio that lags peers and growth catalysts like its CHHC subsidiary, VEL is a buy for investors willing to look past short-term volatility.



Recommendation: Accumulate VEL on dips below $18.50/share, with a 12-month price target of $22.50 (20% upside). Pair this with a stop-loss below $16.00 to manage volatility risk. This is a stock to hold for the long haul in a sector poised for recovery.