VeChain (VET) Faces Critical Technical Crossroads: Bearish Continuation or Bullish Reversal?

VeChain (VET) is at a pivotal juncture in November 2025, with technical indicators and institutional sentiment pointing to a potential inflection point. The asset's price action has formed a double-bottom pattern near the $0.024 support level, a classic bullish reversal signal that requires confirmation to validate its strength. Meanwhile, institutional redemptions and weak open interest suggest lingering bearish pressure, creating a tug-of-war between short-term optimism and long-term skepticism. This analysis dissects the technical and institutional dynamics to determine whether VET is poised for a rebound or a deeper decline.

Technical Analysis: Double-Bottom and Fibonacci Dynamics

VeChain's price has consolidated near $0.0117–$0.0125, forming a double-bottom structure with a neckline at $0.027. A breakout above this level, ideally accompanied by increased volume, would confirm the pattern and target Fibonacci retracement levels such as $0.028204 and $0.035–$0.050 according to analysis. However, the current consolidation phase-a sideways pattern-has yet to produce a decisive move.

Fibonacci extensions further complicate the outlook. If the double-bottom holds, the 61.8% extension targets $0.052, while more aggressive scenarios project $0.133 upon a breakout above $0.027. Conversely, a breakdown below the $0.024 support could trigger a retest of the $0.009–$0.013 range, with the strongest support at $0.01126. The RSI and MACD indicators, though near oversold levels, have not yet confirmed a reversal, leaving room for ambiguity.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) data, however, offers a glimmer of hope. Net inflows in recent weeks suggest accumulation by larger market participants, hinting at potential buying interest if the price stabilizes. This contrasts with the broader market's weak conviction, as open interest (OI) remains stagnant at $28 million since October's crash.

Institutional Sentiment: ETF Outflows and De-Risking Trends

Institutional sentiment remains a critical headwind for VET. November 2025 has seen significant redemptions in crypto ETFs, with BTC and ETH spot ETFs losing $35.8 billion and $8.34 billion, respectively. These outflows reflect a broader de-risking trend as investors flee volatile assets amid a 20.6% drop in Bitcoin and a 21.16% decline in Ethereum according to market review. VeChain, already more than 90% below its all-time high, has not attracted meaningful institutional inflows to counterbalance this trend according to market data.

The VeChain Fear and Greed Index, which measures market psychology, continues to register in the "Fear" territory, underscoring low confidence and heightened volatility. Additionally, the project's treasury has shrunk to $167 million, a stark indicator of waning institutional support. While ETFs operate efficiently through primary market mechanisms-where authorized participants handle creations and redemptions-VET's lack of strong price momentum has failed to attract new institutional buyers according to regulatory analysis.

Actionable Perspective: Short-Term Playbook

For traders, the key is to hedge between the two scenarios. A bearish continuation case hinges on a breakdown below $0.024, with targets at $0.009–$0.013. This would align with broader ETF outflows and weak OI, suggesting a lack of buyers to defend the double-bottom. Conversely, a bullish reversal requires a clean breakout above $0.027 with rising volume, potentially pushing the price toward $0.035–$0.050.

Investors should monitor the $0.0173 resistance level, as a breakout here could signal a reversal of the long-term downtrend. However, given the current institutional climate, a cautious approach is warranted. Short-term traders might consider shorting VET below $0.024, while those with a contrarian outlook could position for a rebound if the double-bottom confirms with volume.

Conclusion

VeChain's technical crossroads reflect a classic battle between optimism and pessimism. While the double-bottom and CMF inflows hint at a potential rebound, institutional redemptions and weak OI paint a bearish backdrop. Traders must weigh these signals carefully, using Fibonacci levels and key support/resistance zones as dynamic guides. In a market where sentiment shifts rapidly, agility and discipline will be paramount.