VeChain (VET) Crashes Below Triangle Support—Is a Bigger Breakdown Brewing?

The recent collapse of VeChain (VET) below critical triangle support levels has ignited debates about the token’s medium-term trajectory. With VET trading near $0.023—a level that has historically acted as a support since 2020—the market is grappling with the implications of a breakdown that could signal a deeper bearish phase. This analysis examines the technical and on-chain dynamics driving the selloff, while contextualizing VET’s struggles within the broader crypto market’s Q3 2025 turbulence.

Technical Breakdown: A Symmetrical Triangle Unravels

VET’s price action in September 2025 has been defined by a failed breakout above the $0.02566 Fibonacci retracement level, triggering a cascade of panic-driven selling [1]. The token’s subsequent breakdown below a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart—a pattern often associated with trend reversals—has intensified bearish sentiment. Technical analysts highlight that a close below $0.0227 (0.236 Fibonacci retracement) invalidates the prior bullish wave count and opens the door to a retest of triangle support near $0.0207 [1].

On longer timeframes, VET’s weekly chart reveals a critical juncture: a sustained close above $0.0515 could validate an uptrend with targets at $0.0968–$0.1331. However, the current breakdown suggests that momentum has shifted decisively lower. The RSI and MACD indicators, both key gauges of trend strength, have deteriorated sharply, reflecting waning bullish conviction [2].

On-Chain Volume: A Canary in the Coal Mine

On-chain data underscores the fragility of VET’s recent price action. The breakdown below triangle support was accompanied by rising selling volume, a red flag for technical traders. According to a report by Invezz, the failed breakout above $0.02566 triggered a wave of profit-taking and liquidations, with exchange inflows surging as early stakers cashed out [1]. This dynamic is exacerbated by the token’s broader ecosystem context: while VET’s staking programs have locked $140 million in assets since July 2025’s StarGate launch, short-term volatility remains elevated due to profit-driven behavior [1].

The volume fear metric—a measure of trading intensity during declines—further supports the bearish narrative. Rising volumes during a breakdown often indicate panic selling rather than strategic accumulation, suggesting that retail and institutional participants are exiting positions [2].

Sector-Wide Turbulence: A Perfect Storm for Altcoins

VET’s struggles cannot be viewed in isolation. The broader crypto market has faced unprecedented turbulence in Q3 2025, with total market capitalization plummeting to $3.79 trillion as investors flocked to Bitcoin [1]. This flight to safety has left altcoins like VET vulnerable to sector-wide selling pressures.

Academic research highlights the interconnectedness between U.S. sectoral stocks and crypto markets, particularly during periods of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Long-term spillovers from U.S. financial sectors have amplified Bitcoin investors’ fear indices, leading to heightened volatility [2]. Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Palestine conflict and Gulf instability, have further eroded risk appetite, compounding the bearish environment for VET [3].

Sentiment Shifts: From Fear to Neutral?

The Vechain Fear and Greed Index, as of late August 2025, registered a “Fear” reading, reflecting widespread pessimism. However, recent stabilization at a “Neutral” sentiment suggests a potential inflection point [2]. While this could indicate short-term capitulation, it also raises questions about whether buyers will emerge to defend key support levels.

The Road Ahead: Key Levels to Watch

For VET to avoid a deeper breakdown, bulls must defend the $0.0207 triangle support. A failure here could trigger a retest of the $0.019–$0.022 weekly demand zone, with a breakdown below $0.019 targeting $0.0045 [2]. Conversely, a rebound above $0.055 could reignite bullish momentum toward $0.1150, though this scenario hinges on broader market stability.

Conclusion

VeChain’s breakdown below triangle support is a cautionary tale of technical fragility and sector-wide turbulence. While on-chain volume and sentiment metrics suggest a bearish phase is underway, the token’s long-term trajectory will depend on its ability to stabilize above critical support levels and benefit from broader crypto market recovery. Investors should closely monitor VET’s interaction with $0.0207 and the broader macroeconomic environment, as the next few weeks could determine whether this is a temporary correction or the start of a larger bearish cycle.

Source:
[1] Vechain price outlook: failed breakout above $0.025 triggers sell-offs, [https://invezz.com/news/2025/08/29/vechain-price-outlook-failed-breakout-above-0-025-triggeres-sell-offs/]
[2] VeChain(VET) Price Today, VET to USD Real-..., [https://stocktwits.com/symbol/VET.X]
[3] Do US sectoral contagion and news-based economic ... [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1062940825000695]