VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) Market Overview for October 3, 2025

• VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) tested key resistance but failed to sustain a breakout above 0.02375.
• Price remained in consolidation between 0.0232–0.02375, with volume tapering off after the 18:00–09:00 ET rally.
• Momentum slowed after a short-lived bullish push, RSI and MACD showing fading bullish impetus.
• Volatility expanded briefly during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, but price retraced back to the mid-range.
• Downturn in turnover at the end of the 24-hour period suggests waning participation and possible short-term indecision.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02308 on October 2, 2025, and traded between 0.02308 and 0.02377 before closing at 0.02377 on October 3 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 134,500,366.30 units, with notional turnover (amount) amounting to 64 units. The pair spent much of the 24-hour period in a tight range, punctuated by brief but sharp swings.

Price action showed a clear attempt to break above 0.02375, particularly between 18:00 and 21:00 ET, where it briefly reached 0.02377. However, this failed to hold as a bearish reversal candle formed around 21:15 ET. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed convergence near 0.0235–0.0236, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias early in the session. By the end of the window, the 50-period MA moved above the 20-period, signaling caution. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remained wide apart, suggesting no immediate trend formation.

Volume distribution revealed a sharp spike between 18:00 and 19:30 ET, with turnover reaching 56,400,000 units in that window. However, volume dropped off sharply afterward, which is a bearish divergence when combined with the failed breakout above 0.02375. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at the start of the session, but it was later negated by a long upper shadow at the 21:15 ET candle. Support was reinforced at 0.02355–0.0236, with multiple reversals occurring around this level. Fibonacci retracements from the 0.02308–0.02377 swing showed the price hovering near the 61.8% level, which historically has been a strong resistance-turned-support zone for VET.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position when price closes above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and RSI moves above 50, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA. This entry could be combined with a Fibonacci retracement target near 0.02385 (78.6% level) and a trailing stop at 0.02365. Given the failed breakout on October 3, this strategy would have triggered an entry but would have exited early due to RSI divergence and a bearish reversal candle. Future testing should incorporate volatility indicators like ATR and volume filters to refine the signal and improve risk-adjusted returns.