VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) Market Overview

• VETUSDT traded lower by 0.00014 (−0.56%) over the last 24 hours, closing near a minor support level.
• Volume increased moderately, with no clear divergence observed between price and turnover.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions early in the session, but momentum has weakened.
• Price traded within a tightening range before a late afternoon breakout attempt failed.
• MACD showed bearish crossover, indicating potential for further downside in the near term.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02511 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02473 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.02525 and a low of 0.02457 during the period. Total volume traded was 141,316,807.36, with total turnover (notional value) at approximately $3,566,144. The pair ended in a consolidation phase following a failed breakout in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, VETUSDT formed a bearish continuation pattern, with a series of lower highs and lower lows indicating a shift in sentiment. A key support level was observed around 0.02475–0.0248, where the price found temporary bids multiple times. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was visible near the 0.0251–0.0252 level in the early afternoon, confirming a shift in momentum. Additionally, a doji formed near 0.02505, signaling indecision during the attempted breakout. Resistance remains intact at 0.02505–0.02515, while support is likely to be tested again at 0.02465–0.02475.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages formed a bearish crossover (death cross) around 0.02502–0.02505, suggesting further downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are converging slightly, while the 200-period MA acts as a long-term support line at 0.02495. The 50-MA currently resides above the 100-MA, indicating a potential for bearish continuation unless a strong reversal is triggered above 0.02505.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the early afternoon, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram has been in negative territory since the 0.02502 level, and the divergence between price and momentum remains neutral. The RSI has been in the oversold zone for much of the session, dipping below 30 at 0.02469 before bouncing slightly. However, the failure to re-enter overbought territory suggests limited buying interest. A strong move above 0.02503 could push the RSI into neutral to bullish territory, but this appears unlikely without a significant catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction during the morning hours, indicating low volatility, which gave way to a moderate expansion after midday. The price moved within the lower half of the bands, suggesting bearish pressure. The 20-period standard deviation showed increased width after the 15:30 ET mark, indicating heightened volatility during the breakout attempt. The closing price of 0.02473 is currently within the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume activity increased in the afternoon and early evening, peaking at around 0.0248 with a 15-minute volume spike of 9.2M VET. However, notional turnover did not significantly increase during this period, pointing to a potential lack of conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between volume and price was not observed, suggesting the bearish move is supported by actual selling pressure. The average notional turnover per candle was approximately $71,322, with the highest turnover occurring at the 0.02478 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.02525 (high) to 0.02457 (low), the price has found a temporary floor near the 61.8% retracement level at 0.02477. This coincides with a cluster of support levels observed in the last 24 hours. A break below this level could see the price test the 78.6% retracement at 0.02461 or the 100% level at 0.02457. On the daily chart, retracement levels suggest that a move above 0.02512 could trigger a test of the 23.6% level at 0.02530, but this seems unlikely without a major reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy focuses on breakout triggers based on 15-minute candlestick patterns and volume confirmation. A long entry is triggered when price breaks above the 0.02505 resistance with a close above this level, confirmed by a volume spike exceeding the previous session's average. A short entry is triggered when price breaks below the 0.02475 support, confirmed by a volume spike and a bearish engulfing pattern. Stop-loss is set at 0.02460 for short entries and 0.02485 for long entries, with take-profit targets at 0.02515 and 0.02450, respectively. The strategy assumes that breakout volume and candlestick patterns can provide a probabilistic edge in ranging and consolidating markets like VETUSDT. Given the current positioning near key support levels, a short bias appears more aligned with prevailing market conditions.