VeChain/Tether Market Overview for 2025-10-11

• VET/USDT fell sharply in early session with a major 50%+ retracement, then consolidated into a tight range in the last 6 hours.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to neutral, with RSI nearing oversold and MACD flattening.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation.
• Volume surged during the initial drop but has since declined, signaling reduced conviction in the move.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level appears to be acting as key support ahead of the 0.01700–0.01720 range.

Market Overview

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at 0.02143, surged to a high of 0.02170, then collapsed sharply to a low of 0.00982 before stabilizing around 0.01744 by 12:00 ET. The pair closed at 0.01744, down ~23.2% from the open. Total 24-hour trading volume reached 1.86 billion, while notional turnover (price × volume) totaled ~320 million. The price action was marked by a steep retracement and tight consolidation, with volatility increasing before a recent contraction.

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both shifted lower in tandem with the price trend, while the 200-period daily MA sits well above the recent price levels, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period line early in the session, reinforcing the bearish momentum before stabilizing later.

Structure & Formations

The sharp selloff from 0.02170 to 0.00982 formed a bearish abandonment pattern, followed by a recovery to 0.01141 and then a consolidation phase. Since 04:00 ET, the price has been range-bound between 0.01690 and 0.01740, forming a narrow trading band. A bullish inside bar pattern appeared at 05:45 ET, suggesting possible reversal. Key support levels are at 0.01700–0.01720, 0.01675, and 0.01650, while resistance lies near 0.01750 and 0.01770.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has flattened and is nearing the zero line, with a histogram showing diminishing bearish momentum and a possible equilibrium forming. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (~29) after the sharp selloff and is showing early signs of divergence. These readings suggest a potential short-term bounce, but bearish conviction remains strong until a clear reversal is seen above 0.01750.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the initial drop but have since narrowed sharply, with the price consolidating in the middle of the band. This contraction signals a potential breakout in either direction, but the recent volume decline suggests lower conviction in a directional move. A break above 0.01750 or below 0.01700 may trigger renewed momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the initial selloff (reaching 194 million at 21:30 ET) but has since declined to ~5–10 million per 15 minutes in recent hours. Notional turnover also dropped significantly after the sharp move down. The reduced volume during consolidation suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst to re-enter. A divergence between volume and price action is not currently evident, but one may emerge if the range is broken.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 0.02170 high to the 0.00982 low show 0.01700 (61.8%) as the immediate support level, which has been tested multiple times. A break below this could target 0.01650 (100%). On the upside, 0.01750 (38.2%) and 0.01770 (23.6%) may be key resistance levels to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy involves entering long positions on a break above 0.01750 with a stop-loss below 0.01720, targeting a 0.01770–0.01800 range. Conversely, short positions could be initiated on a break below 0.01700 with a stop above 0.01730, targeting 0.01650–0.01600. The strategy would aim to exploit the consolidation phase and potential breakout. Given the recent volume contraction, the initial 15-minute bar break would be critical for confirmation.